Don’t Give Up on Sanctions
By REUEL MARC GERECHT and MARK DUBOWITZ
NYT
Washington
THE release last week of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s report on Iran’s progressing nuclear program has to make one wonder whether more than 30 years of sanctions have helped to thwart — or even stall — the country’s nuclear designs. There is no evidence to suggest that economic coercion has ever made Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, rethink the risks-versus-rewards calculus for developing atomic weapons. And the truly crippling sanctions that might have more of an effect would never be accepted by Western politicians, who are fearful of higher oil costs and of being seen as too harsh on the Iranian people.
But giving up on sanctions is not the answer. Instead, we have to make sanctions smarter, more mutually reinforcing.
The sale of oil — about 2.3 million barrels are exported every day — accounts for more than 50 percent of Iran’s national budget. Under current American law, the importation of Iranian oil is prohibited, but gasoline refined from Iranian petroleum is not. Sanctions obviously need to hit this industry harder. But they must also avoid causing a significant increase in petroleum prices. If the United States were to impose an international embargo on Iranian crude, the price would skyrocket, providing Ayatollah Khamenei with a windfall profit. Tehran could simply sell less oil and make more money, while American consumers would suffer. When unrest in Libya took its 1.3 million barrels per day of crude off the market, Americans saw a spike in oil prices.
But effective energy sanctions don’t have to raise oil prices; they can actually do the opposite. Washington just has to learn how to leverage greed.
(More here.)
NYT
Washington
THE release last week of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s report on Iran’s progressing nuclear program has to make one wonder whether more than 30 years of sanctions have helped to thwart — or even stall — the country’s nuclear designs. There is no evidence to suggest that economic coercion has ever made Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, rethink the risks-versus-rewards calculus for developing atomic weapons. And the truly crippling sanctions that might have more of an effect would never be accepted by Western politicians, who are fearful of higher oil costs and of being seen as too harsh on the Iranian people.
But giving up on sanctions is not the answer. Instead, we have to make sanctions smarter, more mutually reinforcing.
The sale of oil — about 2.3 million barrels are exported every day — accounts for more than 50 percent of Iran’s national budget. Under current American law, the importation of Iranian oil is prohibited, but gasoline refined from Iranian petroleum is not. Sanctions obviously need to hit this industry harder. But they must also avoid causing a significant increase in petroleum prices. If the United States were to impose an international embargo on Iranian crude, the price would skyrocket, providing Ayatollah Khamenei with a windfall profit. Tehran could simply sell less oil and make more money, while American consumers would suffer. When unrest in Libya took its 1.3 million barrels per day of crude off the market, Americans saw a spike in oil prices.
But effective energy sanctions don’t have to raise oil prices; they can actually do the opposite. Washington just has to learn how to leverage greed.
(More here.)
Powered by Blogger
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home