Despite Keys, Obama Is No Lock

By NATE SILVER
NYT

Allan J. Lichtman, a presidential historian at American University, has issued a prediction that, given an economy still teetering on the brink of recession and President Obama’s 40 percent approval ratings, looks awfully bold.

“Even if I am being conservative, I don’t see how Obama can lose,” Mr. Lichtman told Paul Bedard of U.S. News & World Report.

Mr. Lichtman’s prediction is based on his 1984 book “The Keys to the White House”. The book cites 13 factors that can work for or against the party of the incumbent president. If at least eight of the 13 keys are scored in favor of the incumbent, he will win the election, Mr. Lichtman says; if he gets seven or fewer, he will not.

The book claims to have called the winner of the popular vote correctly in each election since 1860. (It would not have gotten the winner of the Electoral College right in 1876, 1888 or 2000, when the popular and electoral vote split.) That’s 38 elections in a row! Superficially quite impressive.

(More here.)