The Road (Maybe) Ahead
Mark Halperin
TIME
Friday, July 8, 2011
This isn’t a prediction, but here is one highly plausible sequence of a series of events that could play out on the debt crisis:
Some time in the next 5 days, the President reaches an understanding with Speaker Boehner, Congressman Hoyer, and Senators Reid and McConnell for a deficit reduction/debt ceiling package that will be described as $4 trillion over a dozen years that will be heavily weighted towards spending cuts. There will be some language about a corporate tax reform measure (lower rates, fewer deductions) to be worked on in short order.
The media will initially be all excited about the deal, but will turn almost instantly towards declaring it has no chance to pass, seizing on every criticism of the package or declaration of opposition as sure-fire signs the proposal is dead. The outcry against the package (both before and after the details are known) will be intense on both the left and the right. Interest groups from all quarters will denounce the measure as unacceptable. National security conservatives, for example, will declare that the Pentagon cuts will eviscerate America’s ability to defend itself; liberal groups will deem the entitlement reductions unacceptable. Thumbs down will also come from Paul Krugman, Rush Limbaugh, and every Republican running for president in 2012. Boehner’s deputies – Eric Cantor and Kevin McCarthy – will do a gut check and then agree to get the behemoth through the House. Center-left and center-right newspaper columnists and ed boards will all say, in effect, Congress should hold its collective nose and vote “yes.” Senate passage will be complicated, but the bill will receive overwhelming bipartisan support, with almost all in favor emphasizing the historic opportunity to truly address our national balance sheet – and the necessity of avoiding a government default.
(Read more here.)
TIME
Friday, July 8, 2011
This isn’t a prediction, but here is one highly plausible sequence of a series of events that could play out on the debt crisis:
Some time in the next 5 days, the President reaches an understanding with Speaker Boehner, Congressman Hoyer, and Senators Reid and McConnell for a deficit reduction/debt ceiling package that will be described as $4 trillion over a dozen years that will be heavily weighted towards spending cuts. There will be some language about a corporate tax reform measure (lower rates, fewer deductions) to be worked on in short order.
The media will initially be all excited about the deal, but will turn almost instantly towards declaring it has no chance to pass, seizing on every criticism of the package or declaration of opposition as sure-fire signs the proposal is dead. The outcry against the package (both before and after the details are known) will be intense on both the left and the right. Interest groups from all quarters will denounce the measure as unacceptable. National security conservatives, for example, will declare that the Pentagon cuts will eviscerate America’s ability to defend itself; liberal groups will deem the entitlement reductions unacceptable. Thumbs down will also come from Paul Krugman, Rush Limbaugh, and every Republican running for president in 2012. Boehner’s deputies – Eric Cantor and Kevin McCarthy – will do a gut check and then agree to get the behemoth through the House. Center-left and center-right newspaper columnists and ed boards will all say, in effect, Congress should hold its collective nose and vote “yes.” Senate passage will be complicated, but the bill will receive overwhelming bipartisan support, with almost all in favor emphasizing the historic opportunity to truly address our national balance sheet – and the necessity of avoiding a government default.
(Read more here.)
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