Polls Find Huntsman Unacceptable to Many in Republican Base

By NATE SILVER
NYT

I frequently cite the political futures market Intrade, where people can place bets on everything ranging from the likelihood that Charlie Sheen will get arrested to the identity of the next president. Sometimes, however, bettors at the market settle on odds that seem highly implausible.

One such example: right now, Intrade bettors give former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman a 15 percent chance of winning the Republican nomination. That’s barely lower than Tim Pawlenty, who is assigned a 19 percent chance.

Polls suggest, however, that Mr. Huntsman is likely to be an unacceptable choice for many Republican voters.

Several recent surveys have asked Republican voters for their opinions of each of the individual candidates — whether they view them favorably or unfavorably, and how likely they are to consider voting for them. These questions may provide more insight into the upside and downside potential of each candidate than those which simply ask Republicans to designate their first choice.

(More here.)