Debate Swings Door Open for Perry, Closed for Palin

By NATE SILVER
NYT

Most people have better things to do than to watch a presidential debate eight months in advance of the Iowa caucuses. So when considering a debate like the one that took place among Republican candidates in New Hampshire tonight, it’s important to be mindful of the following:

First, the debate serves mostly to influence elite opinion — including partisan strategists, the news media, local party leaders, major donors and bundlers and the candidates and their staffs. Much less so ordinary voters, who are not yet tuning in.

Second, only a couple of themes are liable to be remembered days (let alone weeks or months) later. The subtle distinctions that a candidate draws on the differences between their Medicare plan and Representative Paul Ryan’s — that stuff will be forgotten about. Instead, it’s the “artistic impression” of the candidates that matters — as well as any actual, breaking news.

The candidate to break news in this debate was Representative Michele Bachmann of Minnesota, who announced that she was running for president. And then she performed strongly throughout, exuding confidence, and turning her service in the House of Representatives from a potential liability (in a field that also includes governors and senators) into a strength (by emphasizing her active role in formulating policy on the major issues of the day).

(More here.)