Blaming Incumbent for the Economy, a Political Tradition

By JOHN HARWOOD

WASHINGTON — A recent Republican Party news release about President Obama, Democrats and the economy declared simply: “They own it.”

As a matter of politics, that’s indisputable. The burdens or benefits of economic conditions go to incumbents — an iron law of elections that makes Mr. Obama vulnerable in 2012.

As a matter of economics, the case is less clear. Mr. Obama’s policies, for better or worse, have something to do with current employment levels and growth rates. But economic advisers to Republican politicians concede that most of the distress Americans feel now stems from the recession and financial crisis he inherited.

Glenn Hubbard, the Columbia Business School dean who led the Council of Economic Advisers under President George W. Bush, criticized Mr. Obama’s spending, tax and regulatory strategies for “actively” retarding the recovery. Yet he added, “There could have been policies that made a difference — but not a sea change.”

(More here.)