The Talented Mr. Romney

By NATE SILVER
NYT

Right now, former Governor Mitt Romney is considered the favorite to win the Republican nomination. Bettors at Intrade, a political futures market, estimate that he has a 24 percent chance of doing so, just ahead of Tim Pawlenty, who has a 19 percent chance.

Here’s a scary number for Mitt Romney. According to a recent survey from Public Policy Polling, 61 percent of Republican primary voters would not be willing to vote for somebody who “supported a bill at the state level mandating that voters have health insurance,” something that Mr. Romney did in Massachusetts.

To the extent that voters will become more aware of this during the course of the primary campaign — and you can be certain that the other Republican candidates will make every effort to ensure that they do — there is significant downward potential in his numbers.

Despite that, I think I’m still in the “buy” category on Romeny at this price. Part of this is because of weaknesses that exist with some of some of the other candidates. Mr. Romney seems to have several tactical advantages.

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