The Cook Report: Trend or Fluke?
A new poll that shows independents warming to the role of government could signal an important shift.
by Charlie Cook
National Journal
Thursday, March 10, 2011
I only get to celebrate special days like my birthday, wedding anniversary, Thanksgiving, and Christmas once a year, but I can rejoice every month or so when an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll comes out (yes, this is sadly true). The survey, conducted by Democrat Peter Hart and Republican Bill McInturff, two of the most experienced and respected pollsters in the business, contains a treasure trove of data, most of which never appears on the air or in print.
Luckily for psephologists (yes, this is a word, meaning “students of elections”) and political junkies, both NBC News and The Wall Street Journal release the full questionnaires online. This allows mere mortals to peer over the shoulders of top political pollsters and peruse data not dissimilar to what campaigns see. (Although, I am an NBC News political consultant, this isn’t just sucking up; it’s true.)
One of my favorite questions tests public attitudes toward government’s role. The version that Hart and McInturff use gives respondents a choice between “Government should do more to solve problems and meet the needs of people” or “Government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals.” The order is alternated to prevent bias.
Back in 2007 and mid-2008, the government-should-do-more camp was a slight majority, in the 52-55 percent range; the government-doing-too-much position was in the 38-42 percent range. Starting a month after Lehmann Brothers collapsed in September 2008 and when credit markets seized up, the results tightened up. The more skeptical view of government pulled ahead in the September 2009 poll, 49 percent to 45 percent. In the national exit poll taken by various news organizations on Election Day 2010, the government-should-do-more response dropped to 38 percent, and the more antigovernment attitude soared to 56 percent.
(More here.)
by Charlie Cook
National Journal
Thursday, March 10, 2011
I only get to celebrate special days like my birthday, wedding anniversary, Thanksgiving, and Christmas once a year, but I can rejoice every month or so when an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll comes out (yes, this is sadly true). The survey, conducted by Democrat Peter Hart and Republican Bill McInturff, two of the most experienced and respected pollsters in the business, contains a treasure trove of data, most of which never appears on the air or in print.
Luckily for psephologists (yes, this is a word, meaning “students of elections”) and political junkies, both NBC News and The Wall Street Journal release the full questionnaires online. This allows mere mortals to peer over the shoulders of top political pollsters and peruse data not dissimilar to what campaigns see. (Although, I am an NBC News political consultant, this isn’t just sucking up; it’s true.)
One of my favorite questions tests public attitudes toward government’s role. The version that Hart and McInturff use gives respondents a choice between “Government should do more to solve problems and meet the needs of people” or “Government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals.” The order is alternated to prevent bias.
Back in 2007 and mid-2008, the government-should-do-more camp was a slight majority, in the 52-55 percent range; the government-doing-too-much position was in the 38-42 percent range. Starting a month after Lehmann Brothers collapsed in September 2008 and when credit markets seized up, the results tightened up. The more skeptical view of government pulled ahead in the September 2009 poll, 49 percent to 45 percent. In the national exit poll taken by various news organizations on Election Day 2010, the government-should-do-more response dropped to 38 percent, and the more antigovernment attitude soared to 56 percent.
(More here.)
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