Nevada Senate polling draws scrutiny

By: David Catanese
Politico.com
November 9, 2010

Of all the competitive races in the nation, none saw as much errant public polling in the final weeks as the Nevada Senate contest. Much of the polling reported a close election between Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Sharron Angle, with the Republican challenger holding a slight advantage.

While the race was competitive, in the end it wasn’t even that close: Reid won 50 percent to 45 percent — a result virtually no one forecast.

So what happened? Rasmussen Reports says it miscalculated Reid's appeal among unaffiliated voters. CNN/Opinion Research thinks the race flipped during the final week. And Mason-Dixon Research concedes it underestimated the Democratic ground game. The three pollsters all showed Angle with a 4-point advantage — 49 percent to 45 percent — in polls released during the final week.

Whatever the reasons, by missing the mark on the marquee Senate race of the 2010 election cycle, the pollsters underscored the inexactness of the science — and opened themselves to further criticism at a time when hard questions are being asked about the effects of a proliferation of polling data.

(More here.)