The Grand Illusion
By CHARLES M. BLOW
NYT
Let me be clear: the idea of an inevitable Republican landslide in November is not a foregone conclusion. It’s a self-perpetuating bit of wishful thinking that’s gaining currency through the force of being recycled ad nauseam by overzealous pundits.
It’s no wonder then that Democrats with defeatist tendencies have bought into it. They are morose and slumped, prematurely assuming the crestfallen posture of a party rejected, rending their garments like a PETA spokeswoman in a meat dress.
Sure, some seats will change party control, but a landslide is hardly certain, particularly if Democrats can change their tune and energize their base. A New York Times/CBS News poll released this week asked respondents whom they would vote for in their own districts if the midterms were held today. Among those the poll determined to be likely voters, Republican candidates held a small edge. (Likely voter models are used to make predictions about the midterms.) However, among all registered voters, Democrats held a larger edge.
According to a Gallup report issued earlier this month, blacks, women and young adults — many of whom were new voters in 2008 — are “not poised for high turnout on Nov. 2.” Some falloff is to be expected, but the gap this year in electoral interest between blacks and whites and men and women is much wider than in previous midterm elections.
(More here.)
NYT
Let me be clear: the idea of an inevitable Republican landslide in November is not a foregone conclusion. It’s a self-perpetuating bit of wishful thinking that’s gaining currency through the force of being recycled ad nauseam by overzealous pundits.
It’s no wonder then that Democrats with defeatist tendencies have bought into it. They are morose and slumped, prematurely assuming the crestfallen posture of a party rejected, rending their garments like a PETA spokeswoman in a meat dress.
Sure, some seats will change party control, but a landslide is hardly certain, particularly if Democrats can change their tune and energize their base. A New York Times/CBS News poll released this week asked respondents whom they would vote for in their own districts if the midterms were held today. Among those the poll determined to be likely voters, Republican candidates held a small edge. (Likely voter models are used to make predictions about the midterms.) However, among all registered voters, Democrats held a larger edge.
According to a Gallup report issued earlier this month, blacks, women and young adults — many of whom were new voters in 2008 — are “not poised for high turnout on Nov. 2.” Some falloff is to be expected, but the gap this year in electoral interest between blacks and whites and men and women is much wider than in previous midterm elections.
(More here.)
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