Final Deepwater Horizon Flow Rate Estimate Is Likely Too Low, Which Benefits BP

Jason Linkins
HuffPost
First Posted: 08- 6-10

Over the past few months, I've encouraged anyone with any interest at all in the amount of oil that gushed forth from the Deepwater Horizon well into the Gulf of Mexico to check in regularly with Sarabeth Guthberg who, at 1115.org, has been keeping a close eye on a lot of fast-moving numbers -- the estimates from the Flow Rate Technical Group, competing numbers from other scientific authorities -- and the many ways in which BP worked to undermine the measurement effort. Well, the well is now capped, so what's Guthberg's verdict?

This is an unmitigated success for BP. Not so much because they have apparently managed to seal the well for good (though additional cement may also be poured in from the bottom, through the relief well that is nearing completion), but because they managed to do so without ever letting the flow of oil from the blown well be metered.

This is, indeed, great news for BP, because it's the oil flow estimate that will be used to determine the fines that will be levied against BP for destroying the Gulf Coast region. An accurate measurement is "the last thing BP wants".

So the fines will be based on the work of the Flow Rate Technical Group's final estimation. Guthberg pulls the relevant figure from the August 2nd Washington Post:

The blown-out well in the Gulf of Mexico gushed 12 times faster than the government and BP estimated in the early weeks of the crisis and has spilled a whopping 4.9 million barrels, or 205.8 million gallons, according to a more detailed analysis announced late Monday.

BP's Macondo well spewed 62,000 barrels of oil a day initially, and as the reservoir gradually depleted itself, the flow eased to 53,000 barrels a day until the well was finally capped and sealed July 15, according to scientists in the Flow Rate Technical Group, supervised by the U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Department of Energy.

(Original here.)