On climate: Loaded dice or Russian roulette?

James Hansen says "the climate dice are being loaded at a rate which is in very close agreement with what was predicted ago a few decades ago based on the expected global warming." But if you learn anything from his book, Storms of my Grandchildren, you'll realize that human influence on the environment is more like playing Russian roulette than throwing craps. I've never tried Russian roulette but I have played craps, and I know from experience I can't count on lady luck.

Should we? — LP

'Climate dice' now dangerously loaded: leading scientist

(AFP)

PARIS — Evidence for global warming has mounted but public awareness of the threat has shrunk, due to a cold northern winter and finger-pointing at the UN's climate experts, a top scientist warned Wednesday.

James Hansen, a leading NASA scientist whose testimony to the US Congress in 1988 was a landmark in the history of climate change, said he was worried by "the large gap" in knowledge between specialists and the public, including politicians.

"That gap has increased substantially in the last year," Hansen told a press conference during a visit to Paris.

"While the science was becoming clearer, the public's perception became less clear, in part because of the unusually cold winter in both North America and Europe, and in part because of the inappropriate over-emphasis on small minor errors in IPCC documents and because of the so-called Climategate."

[snip]

"The winter was not cold if you look over the whole world: December, January, February was the second warmest in 130 years," Hansen noted.

"It was cool at mid-latitudes in the northern hemisphere but unusually warm in the Arctic and that has a simple explanation: there is a chaotic variation in the pressure in the Arctic region. But it's just chaotic variation, there is no reason that it will be repeated."

He added: "We have to look at the frequency of events. Seven out of the last 10 winters in Europe have been warmer than the long-term average, and eight out of 10 in the United States.

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