How Democrats can avoid a midterm rout in 2010
By E.J. Dionne Jr.
WashPost
Monday, January 4, 2010
As they enter this difficult election year, Democrats seem ready to engage yet again in a debate they never seem to tire of: whether winning demands "moving to the center" or "mobilizing the base." If they get stuck on this, they're in for a very bad time.
The simple truth is that in midterm elections, no party can win without its base because turnout is lower than in presidential elections. Those who do vote are more committed to their parties and their ideological priorities.
Behind the 1994 Republican midterm sweep was a dispirited Democratic base unhappy about the failure of heath-care reform, grumpy about the economy and badly split over the North American Free Trade Agreement, for which President Bill Clinton pushed so hard. While Democrats stayed home, Republicans mobbed the polls and won races all the way down the ballot. It's the midterm rule: No base, no victory.
But this doesn't mean independents or swing voters can be ignored, and there are ways to turn out the base that don't turn off the middle. For the party that's out, opposition to the party in power is often enough. Democrats swept the 2006 midterms because their base was wildly enthusiastic about rebuking George W. Bush and the political center had turned on the president, too. Republicans would like to repeat that in reverse this year.
(More here.)
WashPost
Monday, January 4, 2010
As they enter this difficult election year, Democrats seem ready to engage yet again in a debate they never seem to tire of: whether winning demands "moving to the center" or "mobilizing the base." If they get stuck on this, they're in for a very bad time.
The simple truth is that in midterm elections, no party can win without its base because turnout is lower than in presidential elections. Those who do vote are more committed to their parties and their ideological priorities.
Behind the 1994 Republican midterm sweep was a dispirited Democratic base unhappy about the failure of heath-care reform, grumpy about the economy and badly split over the North American Free Trade Agreement, for which President Bill Clinton pushed so hard. While Democrats stayed home, Republicans mobbed the polls and won races all the way down the ballot. It's the midterm rule: No base, no victory.
But this doesn't mean independents or swing voters can be ignored, and there are ways to turn out the base that don't turn off the middle. For the party that's out, opposition to the party in power is often enough. Democrats swept the 2006 midterms because their base was wildly enthusiastic about rebuking George W. Bush and the political center had turned on the president, too. Republicans would like to repeat that in reverse this year.
(More here.)
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1 Comments:
The mid-terms will not be a rout for the GOP, but there is a general sense of Democrat burnout in the country. Even Democrat voters need a breather from the break-neck speed at which the Democrats are ruling (notice I did not say 'govern' and that is on purpose. Democrats don't 'govern' the 'rule' by force). Besides, unless Obama is on the ballot, don't expect the same excitement for the mid-terms as we saw in 2008. Oh sure, the hard-core voters might still turn out, but turn out for what? The Democrats have done nearly everything in the last year they have ever wanted to do. What's left on the leftist agenda to accomplish?! I don't think you can marshall the base to support Cap and Trade when unemployment is in double digits.
I think there will be modest Republican gains, but not much more. The country is not willing to turn over the reins of power in Congress to the GOP after they proved their malfeasance by acting like Democrats during the Bush years. As a former Republican myself, I am wholeheartedly skepital that the GOP has gotten the religion they desperately need and recapture their conservative roots. Michael Steele is steering a ghost ship at the moment and John Boehner is a card-carrying member of the Republicans for Big Government club. They also have taken the advice of the Democrats and thrown out conservatives like me in the name of 'big tent Republicanism'. Hmmm, how's that working out Chairman Steele? In fact, the last solicitation letter I got from the GOP, I checked off the $25,000 contribution box and sent it back with a noce saying 'I will send you $25,000 if John Boehner is removed as House GOP leader for someone like Mike Pence or Paul Ryan'. I am pretty sure my money is safe.
Certainly, I predict that the Democrats will not hold their 60 vote margin in the Senate. In fact, Harry Reid might not even get re-elected. But, Nancy Pelosi will retain the gavel in the House.
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