SMRs and AMRs

Friday, December 04, 2009

A Signal That the Unemployment Rate Won’t Go Higher

By FLOYD NORRIS
NYT

THE peak in unemployment in the United States has probably passed, according to one economic indicator that proved reliable in all 10 previous recessions since World War II.

That indicator is part of the monthly survey done by the Institute for Supply Management, in which manufacturing companies are asked if their business is getting better or worse.

This week the I.S.M. released its November results, showing that for the fourth consecutive month, more companies thought business was getting better than believed it was getting worse.

A part of that survey asks whether companies are adding or subtracting workers. It showed more companies hiring than firing in both October and November.

(More here.)

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