The Senate’s Health Care Calculations
By ANDREW GELMAN, NATE SILVER and DANIEL LEE
NYT
CRITICS of the health care reform plan often refer to it derisively as “ObamaCare.” On the policy merits, this is highly questionable: the White House has taken a hands-off approach toward the legislation that recently passed in the House and the version that is being worked out in the Senate. But when it comes to politics, “ObamaCare” could hardly be more apt: lawmakers’ support for or opposition to reform generally has less to do with the views of their constituents and more to do with the issue of presidential popularity.
Consider, for instance, the 39 Democrats who voted against the bill in the House, which approved the health care bill by a margin of 220 to 215. According to data compiled by The New York Times, 31 of the 39 Democratic naysayers hail from districts that John McCain won last November. Although the upper chamber has a reputation for being less rigidly constrained by near-term political considerations, odds are that the same calculus will prevail in the Senate.
We’ve crunched some poll numbers in order to relate senators’ positions on the bill to public opinion in their home states. First, we rated each of the 100 senators from 1 to 5, based on their public statements and their committee votes on the health care initiative, with 1 meaning completely opposed (like Jim DeMint of South Carolina) and 5 meaning completely supporting the bill (like Barbara Boxer of California).
(More here.)
NYT
CRITICS of the health care reform plan often refer to it derisively as “ObamaCare.” On the policy merits, this is highly questionable: the White House has taken a hands-off approach toward the legislation that recently passed in the House and the version that is being worked out in the Senate. But when it comes to politics, “ObamaCare” could hardly be more apt: lawmakers’ support for or opposition to reform generally has less to do with the views of their constituents and more to do with the issue of presidential popularity.
Consider, for instance, the 39 Democrats who voted against the bill in the House, which approved the health care bill by a margin of 220 to 215. According to data compiled by The New York Times, 31 of the 39 Democratic naysayers hail from districts that John McCain won last November. Although the upper chamber has a reputation for being less rigidly constrained by near-term political considerations, odds are that the same calculus will prevail in the Senate.
We’ve crunched some poll numbers in order to relate senators’ positions on the bill to public opinion in their home states. First, we rated each of the 100 senators from 1 to 5, based on their public statements and their committee votes on the health care initiative, with 1 meaning completely opposed (like Jim DeMint of South Carolina) and 5 meaning completely supporting the bill (like Barbara Boxer of California).
(More here.)
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