Recession and Revolution
By ROSS DOUTHAT
NYT
Economic fiascos usually have political consequences, and it was only a matter of time before the ripples from the Great Recession produced a crisis in one of the world’s more volatile powers.
Luckily for America, it’s happening in Iran.
Americans are accustomed to fretting about how theology shapes Iranian politics. But you don’t need to be an expert in Shi’a eschatology to understand how last week’s volatile election gave way to an exercise in self-discrediting thuggery by Iran’s clerical leadership. Worldly forces made the current crisis possible: Stagnating G.D.P., rising joblessness, and runaway inflation.
Even if this week’s crackdown somehow strengthens Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s hand within the ruling clique, the regime as a whole has been severely weakened. The patina of democracy was a useful thing for the ruling mullahs, and riot police can’t make Iran’s economic problems go away. (Iranian statistics put unemployment at 17 percent and the inflation rate at 25 percent; the real numbers may be higher. And chronic mismanagement may even send Iran’s oil revenues — the backbone of its faltering economy — into steep decline.) Their monopoly on violence notwithstanding, the leaders of the Islamic Republic look less like the Nazis of the Middle East, and more like hapless Weimar functionaries watching their country’s finances circle the drain.
(More here.)
NYT
Economic fiascos usually have political consequences, and it was only a matter of time before the ripples from the Great Recession produced a crisis in one of the world’s more volatile powers.
Luckily for America, it’s happening in Iran.
Americans are accustomed to fretting about how theology shapes Iranian politics. But you don’t need to be an expert in Shi’a eschatology to understand how last week’s volatile election gave way to an exercise in self-discrediting thuggery by Iran’s clerical leadership. Worldly forces made the current crisis possible: Stagnating G.D.P., rising joblessness, and runaway inflation.
Even if this week’s crackdown somehow strengthens Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s hand within the ruling clique, the regime as a whole has been severely weakened. The patina of democracy was a useful thing for the ruling mullahs, and riot police can’t make Iran’s economic problems go away. (Iranian statistics put unemployment at 17 percent and the inflation rate at 25 percent; the real numbers may be higher. And chronic mismanagement may even send Iran’s oil revenues — the backbone of its faltering economy — into steep decline.) Their monopoly on violence notwithstanding, the leaders of the Islamic Republic look less like the Nazis of the Middle East, and more like hapless Weimar functionaries watching their country’s finances circle the drain.
(More here.)
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