White House Cheat Sheet: GOP Weighs Strategy on Court Fight

Chris Cillizza
The Fix
WashPost

Put aside the back and forth that followed President Obama's nomination of appeals court judge Sonia Sotomayor on Tuesday and you are left with one simple fact: barring some sort of major bombshell regarding Sotomayor (and that is always possible) she is almost certain to be confirmed.

The math on the nomination is simple. Democrats currently control 59 seats in the Senate and could well control 60 -- if Al Franken emerges victorious from a case pending before the Minnesota Supreme Court -- before Sotomayor's hearings even begin. The president who nominated her stands at 60 percent (or higher) job approval while Republicans as a party continue to struggle for a message and a leader. And, Sotomayor's history-making status as the first Hispanic nominee for the Court is a point of pride in the Latino community, the nation's largest minority group and a critical voting bloc in coming national elections.

Combine those three factors and it's clear that an attempt to block Sotomayor by Senate Republicans would be met with dire political consequences, which is why most of the statements out of Republican elected officials today were even-handed at worst and kind at best.

Even conservative columnist George F. Will acknowledged as much during an interview on "This Week with George Stephanopoulos" saying:

"You'll see a big argument, but it is a foregone conclusion that will lack comic relief because Joe Biden is no longer on the Judiciary Committee and can't ask as he did of Alito an eight and a half-minute question, but I don't -- everyone knows that whoever he picks, unless they haven't paid their baby-sitter taxes is going to be confirmed."

Given the difficulties inherent in an all out attempt to block Sotomayor, is this nomination already a lost cause for Republicans? Not by a long shot.

(More here.)