SMRs and AMRs

Friday, May 08, 2009

Democrats Do Best Among Generation Y and Baby Boomers


Republicans do better among Generation X
by Frank Newport

PRINCETON, NJ -- Although Democrats currently enjoy a party identification advantage over Republicans among Americans at every age between 18 to 85, the Democrats' greatest advantages come among those in their 20s and baby boomers in their late 40s and 50s. Republicans, on the other hand, come closest to parity with Democrats among Generation Xers in their late 30s and early 40s and among seniors in their late 60s.

These conclusions are based on an analysis of more than 123,000 interviews conducted by Gallup between Jan. 2 and May 5 of this year. This extremely large group of interviews allows for the analysis of party identification for each of the 67 distinct ages between 18 and 85. Gallup conducted interviews with at least 650 respondents at each age, with the average sample size of 1,756 per age year.

As shown in the graph above, there is significant variation in political party identification across the age spectrum in the United States today.

· The percentage of Americans who identify as independents is directly and inversely related to age. More than one-third of the youngest Americans identify as independents, a percentage that drops steadily as the population ages, reaching a low of around 20% among those 80 years of age and older.

· The percentage of Americans who identify as Republicans follows roughly the opposite pattern. Only around 20% of young Americans below the age of 25 identify as Republicans. The percent Republican grows slightly from that point as age increases, up until roughly Americans' mid-40s, and then settles back among baby boomers in their late 40s and 50s. As Americans age into their 60s, the Republican percentage climbs, reaching levels of about 30% and above on average after age 67.

(More here.)

1 Comments:

Blogger ConnectingTheDots said...

Interesting blog and post, but it’s missing an important part of the equation: Generation Jones, born 1954-1965, between the Boomers and Generation X. Google Generation Jones, and you’ll see it’s gotten a lot of media attention, and many top commentators from many top publications and networks (Washington Post, Time magazine, NBC, Newsweek, ABC, etc.) now specifically use this term.

Unlike pollsters who are up with current generational trends, Gallup is still using old school generational delineations. By lumping part of GenJones with Boomers, and part with GenX, Gallup’s generational data is seriously flawed. Several top pollsters have shown that GenJones’ political behavior and voting patterns are clearly distinct from its surrounding generations.

It is important to distinguish between the post-WWII demographic boom in births vs. the cultural generations born during that era. Generations are a function of the common formative experiences of its members, not the fertility rates of its parents. Many experts now believe it breaks down this way:

DEMOGRAPHIC boom in babies: 1946-1964
Baby Boom GENERATION: 1942-1953
Generation Jones: 1954-1965
Generation X: 1966-1978

Here is a relatively recent op-ed in USA TODAY about GenJones as the new generation of leadership:
http://www.usatoday.com/printedition/news/20090127/column27_st.art.htm

9:54 AM  

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