How Obama Really Won the Election
In his new Esquire column, The Data, statistical analysis guru Nate Silver reveals for the first time the secret behind November 4, 2008.
By Nate Silver
If Bill Clinton was the first black president, then Barack Obama might be the first urban one. He is the only American president in recent history to seem unembarrassed about claiming a personal residence in a major American city. Instead, presidents have tended to hail from homes called ranches or groves or manors or plantations, in places called Kennebunkport or Santa Barbara or Oyster Bay or Northampton. There were times, certainly, during the course of the presidential campaign when Barack Obama seemed less than proud of his Chicago heritage. Indeed, Obama treated Chicago as little more than a bedroom community during parts of his presidential bid, choosing to launch his campaign downstate in Springfield instead, and not holding a major public rally in the city until his climactic event in Grant Park on November 4. As John McCain's commercials yapped about the "corrupt Chicago political machine," Obama seemed as though he was worried about bumping into Bill Ayers at Manny's Deli or Tony Rezko at the Frontera Grill. As Rudy Giuliani — the former mayor of the hamlet called New York City — tried to portray Obama as an out-of-touch elitist, Obama seemed to strain to avoid the caricature.
Like many incoming presidents, Barack Obama was elected partly in reaction to the failures of the previous one, a president who was dogmatic, insecure, white-bread, and — at least ostensibly — rural. By contrast, Obama is unmistakably urban: pragmatic, superior, hip, stubborn, multicultural. But Obama's election may also represent something more — if not a sign that America's psyche has changed then at least that its demographics are on the move. We may still romanticize some of the more familiar, rurally oriented narratives of presidents past: the Ronald Reagan frontiersman caricature (which both Sarah Palin and John McCain tried to co-opt at various times) or the Bill Clinton born-in-a-small-town shtick (see also: Edwards, John; Huckabee, Mike). Fewer and fewer of us, however, have actually lived those experiences. In 1992, when Bill Clinton won his first term, 35 percent of American voters were identified as rural according to that year's national exit polls, and 24 percent as urban. This year, however, the percentage of rural voters has dropped to 21 percent, while that of urban voters has climbed to 30. The suburbs, meanwhile, have been booming: 41 percent of America's electorate in 1992, they represent 49 percent now (see chart).
(More here, plus chart.)
By Nate Silver
If Bill Clinton was the first black president, then Barack Obama might be the first urban one. He is the only American president in recent history to seem unembarrassed about claiming a personal residence in a major American city. Instead, presidents have tended to hail from homes called ranches or groves or manors or plantations, in places called Kennebunkport or Santa Barbara or Oyster Bay or Northampton. There were times, certainly, during the course of the presidential campaign when Barack Obama seemed less than proud of his Chicago heritage. Indeed, Obama treated Chicago as little more than a bedroom community during parts of his presidential bid, choosing to launch his campaign downstate in Springfield instead, and not holding a major public rally in the city until his climactic event in Grant Park on November 4. As John McCain's commercials yapped about the "corrupt Chicago political machine," Obama seemed as though he was worried about bumping into Bill Ayers at Manny's Deli or Tony Rezko at the Frontera Grill. As Rudy Giuliani — the former mayor of the hamlet called New York City — tried to portray Obama as an out-of-touch elitist, Obama seemed to strain to avoid the caricature.
Like many incoming presidents, Barack Obama was elected partly in reaction to the failures of the previous one, a president who was dogmatic, insecure, white-bread, and — at least ostensibly — rural. By contrast, Obama is unmistakably urban: pragmatic, superior, hip, stubborn, multicultural. But Obama's election may also represent something more — if not a sign that America's psyche has changed then at least that its demographics are on the move. We may still romanticize some of the more familiar, rurally oriented narratives of presidents past: the Ronald Reagan frontiersman caricature (which both Sarah Palin and John McCain tried to co-opt at various times) or the Bill Clinton born-in-a-small-town shtick (see also: Edwards, John; Huckabee, Mike). Fewer and fewer of us, however, have actually lived those experiences. In 1992, when Bill Clinton won his first term, 35 percent of American voters were identified as rural according to that year's national exit polls, and 24 percent as urban. This year, however, the percentage of rural voters has dropped to 21 percent, while that of urban voters has climbed to 30. The suburbs, meanwhile, have been booming: 41 percent of America's electorate in 1992, they represent 49 percent now (see chart).
(More here, plus chart.)
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