The Year of Living Gloomily
The recession is bad enough. A relentless news cycle is making it worse.
By Eric Weiner
WashPost
Sunday, December 28, 2008
If the FDA regulated the media, it would require all stories about the economy to carry this warning: "Dizziness and pangs of existential angst may result. Do not read if you suffer from gloominess or are prone to bouts of anxiety. If you are near retirement age or work in the auto industry, consult with a physician before reading."
Yes, things out there are bad, really bad, and they're only going to get worse. Americans, we're told, are retrenching. We're eating out less, forsaking vacations and gift-giving and even that big New Year's Eve splurge, though we are apparently spending more -- lots more! -- on guns, booze and psychics. Crime rates are spiking, or soon will. We're hocking our jewelry and even our hair; we're donating our eggs; we're signing up as "lab rats." We're "ransacking our closets," as USA Today breathlessly put it, in hopes of finding something -- anything -- to sell on eBay.
All because of the recession.
I'm sure some of these stories are true, or true enough to satisfy an editor somewhere, but there's something else going on here: It's what psychologists call "confirmation bias." That's the human tendency to seek out only facts that fit what we already know to be true while downplaying or ignoring contradictory evidence. As Mark Twain is said to have quipped, "To a man with a hammer, everything looks like a nail." To a media covering a recession, everything looks like collateral damage. It's the flip side of irrational exuberance: irrational despondency.
No, I'm not blaming the media for the recession, but the fact is that news about the economy matters more than, say, news about the weather. A newspaper story about a hurricane doesn't alter the hurricane's path. But negative stories about the economy (even untrue ones) can erode consumer confidence, and two-thirds of our economy is driven by consumer spending.
(More here.)
By Eric Weiner
WashPost
Sunday, December 28, 2008
If the FDA regulated the media, it would require all stories about the economy to carry this warning: "Dizziness and pangs of existential angst may result. Do not read if you suffer from gloominess or are prone to bouts of anxiety. If you are near retirement age or work in the auto industry, consult with a physician before reading."
Yes, things out there are bad, really bad, and they're only going to get worse. Americans, we're told, are retrenching. We're eating out less, forsaking vacations and gift-giving and even that big New Year's Eve splurge, though we are apparently spending more -- lots more! -- on guns, booze and psychics. Crime rates are spiking, or soon will. We're hocking our jewelry and even our hair; we're donating our eggs; we're signing up as "lab rats." We're "ransacking our closets," as USA Today breathlessly put it, in hopes of finding something -- anything -- to sell on eBay.
All because of the recession.
I'm sure some of these stories are true, or true enough to satisfy an editor somewhere, but there's something else going on here: It's what psychologists call "confirmation bias." That's the human tendency to seek out only facts that fit what we already know to be true while downplaying or ignoring contradictory evidence. As Mark Twain is said to have quipped, "To a man with a hammer, everything looks like a nail." To a media covering a recession, everything looks like collateral damage. It's the flip side of irrational exuberance: irrational despondency.
No, I'm not blaming the media for the recession, but the fact is that news about the economy matters more than, say, news about the weather. A newspaper story about a hurricane doesn't alter the hurricane's path. But negative stories about the economy (even untrue ones) can erode consumer confidence, and two-thirds of our economy is driven by consumer spending.
(More here.)
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