Tracking Poll Primer
from FiveThirtyEight.com
Now that there are fully eight distinct national tracking polls, I thought I'd take the time to give you my Cliff's Notes assessment of each one. The polls are arranged in the order in which they typically appear throughout the day -- as you may have discovered, you can get your tracking poll fix quite literally morning, noon and night.
Zogby/C-SPAN/Reuters
When Publishes: About 12:45 AM Eastern Time.
Key Specifications: ~1200 likely voters, 3-day rolling sample.
Track Record: Zogby's telephone polls are not quite as bad a reputed, ranking just slightly below average (his internet-based Zogby Interactive polls are another matter altogether). However, they seem to be getting worse rather than better. Zogby was one of the few pollsters to call the popular vote for Gore in 2000, but he missed high on Kerry's numbers in many state-level polls in 2004, and then had an erratic primary season this year.
(Continued here.)
Now that there are fully eight distinct national tracking polls, I thought I'd take the time to give you my Cliff's Notes assessment of each one. The polls are arranged in the order in which they typically appear throughout the day -- as you may have discovered, you can get your tracking poll fix quite literally morning, noon and night.
Zogby/C-SPAN/Reuters
When Publishes: About 12:45 AM Eastern Time.
Key Specifications: ~1200 likely voters, 3-day rolling sample.
Track Record: Zogby's telephone polls are not quite as bad a reputed, ranking just slightly below average (his internet-based Zogby Interactive polls are another matter altogether). However, they seem to be getting worse rather than better. Zogby was one of the few pollsters to call the popular vote for Gore in 2000, but he missed high on Kerry's numbers in many state-level polls in 2004, and then had an erratic primary season this year.
(Continued here.)
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