Undecideds Collapsing

by: Chris Bowers
Open Left
Mon Sep 01, 2008 at 13:00

Has there been a convention bounce for Obama? If so, how large? Right now, only three polls are available to provide a measurement. This morning's Rasmussen poll (August 29-31) shows Obama ahead 49%-46%, which compares to a 46%-46% tie in the polling immediately before the convention (August 23-25). CNN has a new poll out showing Obama ahead 49%--48%, compared to 47%--47% just before the convention. Gallup shows a larger improvement, as a two-point McCain lead in the immediate pre-convention polling has now turned into a six-point Obama advantage.

On average, this shows a four-point improvement for Obama, although most polls have not released their post-convention numbers yet, thus leaving the size of the bounce unknown. However, beyond the net increase, the most important shift that occurred over the past week is the drop in the number of undecideds. Pollster.com illustrates this shift nicely.