How to Beat McCain's Bounce
By Harold Meyerson
Washington Post
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
Sarah's a hit with the ladies -- white ladies, anyway. Monday's Washington Post-ABC News poll, which showed a newly deadlocked presidential race, registered a 20-point bump for the McCain ticket among white women since the previous poll, taken before Sarah Palin was loosed on the world. Among these women, Barack Obama's eight-point lead has turned into a 12-point deficit.
No wonder Republicans have been criticizing identity politics all these years. It works. And nobody is benefiting from it more than the selfsame GOP.
The Republicans come charging out of their convention bolstered by a hopped-up base, the empathetic support of working-class (chiefly married) white women and the mantle, however ludicrous, of change. There's not much Obama can do about energized GOP faithful, but there are any number of things he can do to erode voters' infatuation with Palin, and all manner of things he needs to do yesterday to debunk the Republicans' claim to the banner of change.
Anyone familiar with polling knows that when voters start liking a candidate, they start giving that candidate higher marks than they previously had on a wide range of issues, even though the candidate's record and positions on those issues may not have changed at all. This, along with the symbolism of Palin's selection, helps explain why voters' estimation of McCain's economic policies has risen: Obama's lead on the question of who can better handle the economy has abruptly shrunk to just five percentage points, and that change has been driven by white women. Before the conventions, they preferred Obama on the economy by 12 points; now, they prefer McCain by 10. (Other national polls show a similar narrowing of Obama's advantage on the economy.)
(Continued here.)
Washington Post
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
Sarah's a hit with the ladies -- white ladies, anyway. Monday's Washington Post-ABC News poll, which showed a newly deadlocked presidential race, registered a 20-point bump for the McCain ticket among white women since the previous poll, taken before Sarah Palin was loosed on the world. Among these women, Barack Obama's eight-point lead has turned into a 12-point deficit.
No wonder Republicans have been criticizing identity politics all these years. It works. And nobody is benefiting from it more than the selfsame GOP.
The Republicans come charging out of their convention bolstered by a hopped-up base, the empathetic support of working-class (chiefly married) white women and the mantle, however ludicrous, of change. There's not much Obama can do about energized GOP faithful, but there are any number of things he can do to erode voters' infatuation with Palin, and all manner of things he needs to do yesterday to debunk the Republicans' claim to the banner of change.
Anyone familiar with polling knows that when voters start liking a candidate, they start giving that candidate higher marks than they previously had on a wide range of issues, even though the candidate's record and positions on those issues may not have changed at all. This, along with the symbolism of Palin's selection, helps explain why voters' estimation of McCain's economic policies has risen: Obama's lead on the question of who can better handle the economy has abruptly shrunk to just five percentage points, and that change has been driven by white women. Before the conventions, they preferred Obama on the economy by 12 points; now, they prefer McCain by 10. (Other national polls show a similar narrowing of Obama's advantage on the economy.)
(Continued here.)
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