In Senate, GOP Braces For Cold November

Republicans are in such perilous shape heading toward Election Day that they argue a four-seat loss would count as a "moral victory."

Sat. Aug 2, 2008
by Jennifer E. Duffy
National Journal

Buoyed by a political climate even more hospitable than the one in which they gained six seats in 2006, Senate Democrats can barely contain their glee at the prospect of expanding their razor-thin majority by five to seven seats.

Senate Republican leaders no longer even try to argue that the Democrats' one-seat majority is in jeopardy or to play down predictions like that of Democratic

Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Charles Schumer, who boasts that his party will pick up "a whole bunch of seats." Instead, Republicans characterize a four-seat Democratic gain as a "moral victory" for their party. They are focused on holding down their losses and protecting their incumbents.

How did this year's Senate playing field become one of the most lopsided in recent memory? A quartet of important factors--political climate, math, money, and retirements--are all working against the GOP this time.

By any number of measures, the national political climate is extremely hostile to the Republican Party. By a wide margin, voters believe that the country is seriously on the wrong track. And they are not optimistic that the economy will soon improve. Democrats now hold a 13.5-point advantage over the GOP in party identification, according to the cumulative results of Gallup surveys taken in the first six months of this year. Including voters who called themselves independents yet lean toward one party or the other, 52.7 percent of respondents identify themselves as Democrats and 39.2 percent say they are Republicans. Four years ago, the Democrats' ID advantage was just 2.7 points.

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