Gallup's "Likely Voters" Poll: A Snapshot Or A Hypothesis?
Seth Colter Walls
The Huffington Post
Over at USA Today's "On Politics" blog, stories about polls come stamped with the following disclaimer: "WARNING! Polls are snapshots of public opinion, not forecasts of far-off election days." It's a noble standard, but sadly, one that is not met by the paper's latest poll, a joint effort with the Gallup firm.
As the Huffington Post reported Monday, the Gallup/USA Today poll's results among "likely voters" raised more questions than they answered. By showing a lead for McCain that contradicted Gallup's own independent tracking results, the poll prompted Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz to ask how Gallup and USA Today selected the "likely voters" who purportedly now favor the Arizona Republican. While the answer to that methodological question (and several others) remains a bit murky, USA Today's full writeup in Tuesday's dead-tree edition offers a few more details -- and one other nugget of information that should drive skepticism of their results through the roof.
As for how "likely voters" were identified, USA Today reports that respondents were asked "how much thought they had given the election, how often they voted in the past and whether they plan to vote this fall." Fair enough. But the very next sentence raises even more questions about whether USA Today's effort is actually a snapshot of the electorate, as its website claims, or enters the realm of forward-looking hypothesizing. Buried in the ninth paragraph of USA Today's own writeup, they reveal that "McCain's gains came because there was an even number of likely voters from each party. Last month, the Democrats had an 11-point edge."
(Continued here.)
The Huffington Post
Over at USA Today's "On Politics" blog, stories about polls come stamped with the following disclaimer: "WARNING! Polls are snapshots of public opinion, not forecasts of far-off election days." It's a noble standard, but sadly, one that is not met by the paper's latest poll, a joint effort with the Gallup firm.
As the Huffington Post reported Monday, the Gallup/USA Today poll's results among "likely voters" raised more questions than they answered. By showing a lead for McCain that contradicted Gallup's own independent tracking results, the poll prompted Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz to ask how Gallup and USA Today selected the "likely voters" who purportedly now favor the Arizona Republican. While the answer to that methodological question (and several others) remains a bit murky, USA Today's full writeup in Tuesday's dead-tree edition offers a few more details -- and one other nugget of information that should drive skepticism of their results through the roof.
As for how "likely voters" were identified, USA Today reports that respondents were asked "how much thought they had given the election, how often they voted in the past and whether they plan to vote this fall." Fair enough. But the very next sentence raises even more questions about whether USA Today's effort is actually a snapshot of the electorate, as its website claims, or enters the realm of forward-looking hypothesizing. Buried in the ninth paragraph of USA Today's own writeup, they reveal that "McCain's gains came because there was an even number of likely voters from each party. Last month, the Democrats had an 11-point edge."
(Continued here.)
Powered by Blogger
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home