Gallup: Why McCain and Obama Are Tied — For Now Hotlist

by DemFromCT
from DailyKos
Fri Jun 06, 2008

In a fascinating snapshot of where we are at the moment, Gallup provides details of composite polling done for the month of May. Remember, this is where we are now, not where we are going to be. All the data comes from pre-Obama victory and pre-Clinton concession discussions.

As we noted in mid-May:

The Republicans, under George W. Bush, have succeeded in remaking themselves from a national party into a regional party (the South)

That statement was made from posting about a Chris Cillizza analysis of WaPo polling:

A look at the presidential vote by region suggests a shift in political inclination is at work. Not surprisingly, Obama holds his largest lead over McCain (18 points) in the Northeast -- an area that has become increasingly dominated by Democrats in recent elections.

But, Obama also holds a lead in the traditional battleground area of the Midwest -- where Obama takes 54 percent to McCain's 41 percent -- and in the Republican-leaning territory of the West where Obama holds a double-digit lead at the moment. And, even in the South, where Republicans have dominated at the federal level for much of the past four decades, Obama is competitive; McCain takes 49 percent to 45 percent for the Illinois senator.

While Gallup has slightly different splits, they have the same findings. It's the South that keeps McCain competitive in the horse race match-up. Everywhere but the South, McCain loses (the Midwest is, as always, the battleground):

(Continued here.)