Obama Over The Top: How New Voters Could Redraw The Electoral Map
from Progress Illinoisby Josh Kalven on May 11, 2008
During an April 25 conference call to unveil the Obama campaign's 50-state voter registration drive, deputy campaign manager Steve Hildebrand sounded genuinely exasperated as he tried to steer reporters to the topic at hand.
Despite his best efforts, those on the call didn’t request any further details about the effort. No one posed questions about the drive's goals or how the campaign thinks it could affect Obama’s general election prospects. Instead, they brought up the latest distractions: What does the campaign make of Jeremiah Wright’s new comments? Are advisers worried that Obama has a problem attracting working-class white voters? And so on.
The media’s lack of interest is hardly surprising. While voter registration drives are invaluable, they’re also dry and tedious – not that exciting to participate in or to write about.
But some new data indicates that, come November 5, we may find ourselves looking back at this year’s intensive voter mobilization efforts as what put Obama – and down-ballot Democrats nationwide – over the top.
(Continued here.)
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1 Comments:
Interesting analysis.
One thing that the computers cannot factor in is voter suppression. The author assumes larger African-American voters, but in states like Ohio, historically their precincts have not gotten adequate voting machines. And don't forget Indiana's new Voter ID laws which I understand that Missouri is now looking to require proof of citizenship prior to registering a voter.
The interesting thing is the states that change color ... like Texas which is the reason that I believe Rick Perry would be a more beneficial VP choice than Pawlenty. The same would be true for Crist in Florida.
Obama may have to look at Nunn or Webb/Warner in order to ensure that Virginia goes blue.
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