McCain vs Obama: By the Numbers
Chris Cillizza
The Fix
Washington Post
The Democratic presidential nomination fight continues on without end, but attention is beginning to shift to the prospects of a general election battle between Sens. Barack Obama (Ill.) and John McCain (Ariz.).
A new poll conducted by the Washington Post and ABC provides us with a benchmark of where the likely Obama-McCain general election matchup stands -- and gives us scads of data to sort through in an attempt to understand the strengths and weaknesses of these two candidates.
In the head-to-head matchup, Obama leads McCain, 51 percent to 44 percent, a margin roughly similar to the 49 percent to 44 percent edge he held in the Post/ABC survey in April. Obama held a wider 52 percent to 40 percent lead in a March Post/ABC poll.
The Fix, as always, seeks to go beyond the basics and bring Fixistas the essential information you can't get anywhere else. Thanks to Washington Post polling director -- and all around good guy -- Jon Cohen, we have a wellspring of numbers to slice and dice as we see fit.
At first glance, it's clear that while this election may be historic on some levels, some of the traditional divides between the parties remain.
Take the gender gap. Obama and McCain are statistically tied among men (Obama 48 percent, McCain 47 percent), but the Illinois senator has a 14-point edge among women. That margin is due in large part to Obama's strength among black women, who favor him over McCain by a whopping 90 points. (That is not a typo.) McCain actually leads among white women, 50 percent to 43 percent, a reflection, perhaps of some lingering ill will among supporters of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.).
Similarly, Obama expectedly does better among lower income voters while the two candidates run even among the more affluent. Obama holds a wide 16-point lead among those with a household income of $50,000 or less while McCain is ahead of Obama, 49 percent to 48 percent, among those making $50,000 or more.
(Continued here.)
A bonus item: a poll on the country's direction, here.
The Fix
Washington Post
The Democratic presidential nomination fight continues on without end, but attention is beginning to shift to the prospects of a general election battle between Sens. Barack Obama (Ill.) and John McCain (Ariz.).
A new poll conducted by the Washington Post and ABC provides us with a benchmark of where the likely Obama-McCain general election matchup stands -- and gives us scads of data to sort through in an attempt to understand the strengths and weaknesses of these two candidates.
In the head-to-head matchup, Obama leads McCain, 51 percent to 44 percent, a margin roughly similar to the 49 percent to 44 percent edge he held in the Post/ABC survey in April. Obama held a wider 52 percent to 40 percent lead in a March Post/ABC poll.
The Fix, as always, seeks to go beyond the basics and bring Fixistas the essential information you can't get anywhere else. Thanks to Washington Post polling director -- and all around good guy -- Jon Cohen, we have a wellspring of numbers to slice and dice as we see fit.
At first glance, it's clear that while this election may be historic on some levels, some of the traditional divides between the parties remain.
Take the gender gap. Obama and McCain are statistically tied among men (Obama 48 percent, McCain 47 percent), but the Illinois senator has a 14-point edge among women. That margin is due in large part to Obama's strength among black women, who favor him over McCain by a whopping 90 points. (That is not a typo.) McCain actually leads among white women, 50 percent to 43 percent, a reflection, perhaps of some lingering ill will among supporters of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.).
Similarly, Obama expectedly does better among lower income voters while the two candidates run even among the more affluent. Obama holds a wide 16-point lead among those with a household income of $50,000 or less while McCain is ahead of Obama, 49 percent to 48 percent, among those making $50,000 or more.
(Continued here.)
A bonus item: a poll on the country's direction, here.
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1 Comments:
Good article except I disagree with the conculsion :
Still, when matched against the generic numbers, there is reason for concern among Democrats as McCain is clearly over-performing his party in any number of key demographic groups -- a showing that suggests he has the potential to make the November election far closer than the political climate suggests it should be.
Voters today remember John McCain of 2000. This John McCain is appeasing Grover Norquist -- in fact, McCain not only wants to make the Bush tax cuts permanent, but also decrease corporate income tax (even though half of the largest companies do not pay any taxes already.)
How will the voters respond to :
Who will select the next Supreme Court ?
Do you want to a market approach to Health Care reform ?
How should Social Security and Medicare be funded ?
Do you want a militaristic approach to foreign policy or a diplomatic approach ?
Right now, Obama's race and religion are the issues that are dominating voter's minds ... once they realize that McCain has eight houses, they will realize who the elitist is and who he will represent.
The more debates that Obama and McCain have the better for Obama. McCain is coming across as a happy-go-lucky salesman while Obama is more cerebral. The only problem is that America voted for the happy-go-lucky guy in the last two elections.
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