The New Class
A close analysis of Pennsylvania's new Democrats, and why they could mean trouble for Hillary Clinton--and John McCain.
Marin Cogan
The New Republic
Published: Monday, April 21, 2008
Amidst all the statistics clamoring for attention during the last six weeks of 24/7 Pennsylvania primary coverage, there's one key number that hasn't gotten the attention it deserves: 306,918. That's the number of new Democrats added to the voter rolls in Pennsylvania between January 1 and the voter registration deadline on March 24. 146,166 first-time voters joined the party and 160,752 switched their registration from Republican or Independent to Democrat. (A mere 39,019 first-time voters joined the Republicans.) The new Democrats have pushed the party's total past the four million mark--a historic first for any party in the state's history. Those voters have the potential to change the results from Pennsylvania dramatically--both tomorrow, and in the general election in November.
At this point, any prediction about which candidate the new Democrats will support in the primary (which is closed; only registered Democrats can participate) is circumstantial. As a group, there's no polling data of their preferences, and newly registered voters aren't identified as such in any statewide poll. But evidence strongly suggests that most of the newly registered voters will support Barack Obama. Both campaigns led efforts to draw in supporters. The Clinton campaign dispatched about 200 volunteers to solicit the state's already registered Democrats, but Obama's campaign was more aggressive in targeting both unregistered Pennsylvanians and the Republican swing voters that he's had success picking off in other primaries.
(Continued here.)
Marin Cogan
The New Republic
Published: Monday, April 21, 2008
Amidst all the statistics clamoring for attention during the last six weeks of 24/7 Pennsylvania primary coverage, there's one key number that hasn't gotten the attention it deserves: 306,918. That's the number of new Democrats added to the voter rolls in Pennsylvania between January 1 and the voter registration deadline on March 24. 146,166 first-time voters joined the party and 160,752 switched their registration from Republican or Independent to Democrat. (A mere 39,019 first-time voters joined the Republicans.) The new Democrats have pushed the party's total past the four million mark--a historic first for any party in the state's history. Those voters have the potential to change the results from Pennsylvania dramatically--both tomorrow, and in the general election in November.
At this point, any prediction about which candidate the new Democrats will support in the primary (which is closed; only registered Democrats can participate) is circumstantial. As a group, there's no polling data of their preferences, and newly registered voters aren't identified as such in any statewide poll. But evidence strongly suggests that most of the newly registered voters will support Barack Obama. Both campaigns led efforts to draw in supporters. The Clinton campaign dispatched about 200 volunteers to solicit the state's already registered Democrats, but Obama's campaign was more aggressive in targeting both unregistered Pennsylvanians and the Republican swing voters that he's had success picking off in other primaries.
(Continued here.)
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