SMRs and AMRs

Monday, April 14, 2008

Lost in the Smoke-Filled Room: Unexpected Talent

By Shankar Vedantam
Washington Post
Monday, April 14, 2008

If this were Britain, Russia or India, Rudy Giuliani '08 caps would not be on the clearance racks. In those countries, where bigwigs and insiders get to nominate party leaders, the former Republican front-runner and establishment favorite would have long ago been anointed the winner.

Giuliani's inglorious fall, and the ascendance of Sens. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) and John McCain (R-Ariz.), send an important message to the world about the importance of intra-party democracy: Interesting things happen when you allow rank-and-file voters to choose their leaders. Primaries don't just eliminate over-hyped Giulianis; they also discover underrated Obamas and never-say-die McCains.

"Barack Obama is Exhibit A about the value of holding primaries," said James Adams, a political scientist at the University of California at Davis, who studies how political parties around the world choose leaders. "A lot of Democratic Party elites did not know what a good campaigner he was or would prove to be. Candidates like Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani may be Exhibit B about the value of holding primaries, in that they proved less appealing than their press clippings would have suggested."

If the eyes of the world are glued on the U.S. presidential primaries, the most important lesson others take away might have to do with the importance of having such races in the first place. New research by Adams and others shows that primaries are the most efficient way to discover political phenoms such as Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton -- politicians who might never have been chosen if it had been left up to party insiders.

In contrast to the United States, party leaders in Britain are selected by the equivalent of superdelegates, such as members of Parliament. In Russia, India and many other countries, presidential and prime ministerial candidates are often handpicked by small groups of elites -- Russian President Vladimir Putin recently anointed Dmitry Medvedev leader of the United Russia Party ahead of general elections, which the party was certain to win. Medvedev was formerly Putin's chief of staff.

In India, four generations of the famous Nehru-Gandhi family have maintained a lock grip over leadership of the ruling Congress Party.

(Continued here.)

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