Electoral map favors a Democrat, has McCain playing defense
By LIZ SIDOTI
Associated Press Writer
Sun Apr 27
The electoral road to the White House favors Democrats this fall — either Barack Obama or Hillary Rodham Clinton — and has Republican John McCain playing defense to thwart a presidential power shift.
A downtrodden economy, the war in Iraq and a public call for change have created an Electoral College outlook and a political environment filled with extraordinary opportunity for the Democrats and enormous challenge for the GOP nominee-in-waiting.
Both parties count on victory in dozens of states that long have voted their way. The competition to reach the 270 electoral votes needed to win is expected to play out primarily in 14 states. All but one saw the greatest action in 2004. The exception is Virginia, a longtime Republican stronghold where Democrats have made inroads.
Eight of the states went for President Bush four years ago, including the crown jewels Ohio and Florida. Six, including big-prize Pennsylvania, voted for Democrat John Kerry. In the battlegrounds, far more electoral votes, 97, are up for grabs for Democrats than the 69 available for McCain to go after. Twice as many of the closest states — decided by 2 or fewer percentage points — voted Republican in 2004; they include New Mexico and Iowa, which the GOP won by 1 point.
(Continued here.)
Associated Press Writer
Sun Apr 27
The electoral road to the White House favors Democrats this fall — either Barack Obama or Hillary Rodham Clinton — and has Republican John McCain playing defense to thwart a presidential power shift.
A downtrodden economy, the war in Iraq and a public call for change have created an Electoral College outlook and a political environment filled with extraordinary opportunity for the Democrats and enormous challenge for the GOP nominee-in-waiting.
Both parties count on victory in dozens of states that long have voted their way. The competition to reach the 270 electoral votes needed to win is expected to play out primarily in 14 states. All but one saw the greatest action in 2004. The exception is Virginia, a longtime Republican stronghold where Democrats have made inroads.
Eight of the states went for President Bush four years ago, including the crown jewels Ohio and Florida. Six, including big-prize Pennsylvania, voted for Democrat John Kerry. In the battlegrounds, far more electoral votes, 97, are up for grabs for Democrats than the 69 available for McCain to go after. Twice as many of the closest states — decided by 2 or fewer percentage points — voted Republican in 2004; they include New Mexico and Iowa, which the GOP won by 1 point.
(Continued here.)
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1 Comments:
On the surface past results might be an indicator, but if you buy the concept that all politics is local, then the House and Senate races may have more influence this year. With the high number of Republican retirements and disproportionate number of Republican Senate seats up this year, the Republicans will have to decide where they want to spend there money.
Ohio is a prime example. There is an inordinate number of Republican retirements representing Ohio in the House. If those seats turn Democratic, it will change the landscape of Congress. Boehner will not want to lose Ohio. They will spend a lot of money there which will only help McCain especially if Obama is his competitor.
On top of that there is a sex scandal in the Ohio's Democratic Attorney Generals office which could ripple through the November election with potentially disastrous consequences for the Democrats' national ticket.
If McCain picks Rob Portman as VP, Ohio will be retained the Republican Electoral College votes.
Florida is another state that has a lot of competitive House races. Considering Obama's problems with Jewish voters, that plays well for McCain.
Virginia on the other hand might help the Democrats.
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