Shi'ite fight shows other side of the COIN

By Ehsan M Ahrari
Asia Times

The current battle between Iraqi forces and Muqtada al-Sadr's Jaish al-Mahdi (Mahdi Army or JAM) has raised the level of instability and uncertainty in Iraq by several notches. The fact that the Iraqi forces fighting the JAM are Shi'ites is a wrinkle that is pitting family members against each other. This is a Shi'ite versus Shi'ite struggle, and no one knows how bad it will get before it improves, if it ever does.

The fighting has been limited, but it's been enough to draw in the US Air Force. And although the tension eased on Sunday when Muqtada said he had told his militia to lay down its weapons, he demanded that officials stop raids on his men, especially in the southern city of Basa and in Sadr City in Baghdad. At any moment, violence could break out again.

Since the United States has attached so much significance to its new counterinsurgency doctrine (COIN) in Iraq, the Shi'ite battle deserves serious examination in order to understand the continued, albeit arguable, success of that campaign in stabilizing Iraq and eventually in bringing about the redeployment of most American troops.

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