A Civil War Iraq Can’t Win
By ANTHONY H. CORDESMAN
New York Times
Washington
EVEN if American and Iraqi forces are able to eliminate Al Qaeda in Iraq, there are still three worrisome possibilities of new forms of fighting that could divide Iraq and deny the United States any form of “victory.”
One is that the Sunni tribes and militias that have been cooperating with the Americans could turn against the central government. The second is that the struggle among Arabs, Kurds, Turkmen and other ethnic groups to control territory in the north could lead to fighting in Kirkuk, Mosul or other areas.
The third risk — and one that is now all too real — is that the political struggle between the dominant Shiite parties could become an armed conflict.
Fighting is now occurring in southern Iraq and parts of Baghdad between the Mahdi Army, which is under the control of the populist cleric Moktada al-Sadr, and a coalition of forces led by Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki’s Dawa Party and the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, a powerful party led by a Maliki ally, Abdul Aziz al-Hakim. This latter coalition has de facto control of much of the Iraqi security forces, and Mr. Hakim’s group has its own militia, called the Badr Organization.
(Continued here.)
New York Times
Washington
EVEN if American and Iraqi forces are able to eliminate Al Qaeda in Iraq, there are still three worrisome possibilities of new forms of fighting that could divide Iraq and deny the United States any form of “victory.”
One is that the Sunni tribes and militias that have been cooperating with the Americans could turn against the central government. The second is that the struggle among Arabs, Kurds, Turkmen and other ethnic groups to control territory in the north could lead to fighting in Kirkuk, Mosul or other areas.
The third risk — and one that is now all too real — is that the political struggle between the dominant Shiite parties could become an armed conflict.
Fighting is now occurring in southern Iraq and parts of Baghdad between the Mahdi Army, which is under the control of the populist cleric Moktada al-Sadr, and a coalition of forces led by Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki’s Dawa Party and the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, a powerful party led by a Maliki ally, Abdul Aziz al-Hakim. This latter coalition has de facto control of much of the Iraqi security forces, and Mr. Hakim’s group has its own militia, called the Badr Organization.
(Continued here.)
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1 Comments:
Cordesman has consistently presented frank analysis of the dire situation in Iraq. His question is the one that Neo-Cons don’t want to address … IF Al-Qaeda is eliminated, then what?
Take his first question : One is that the Sunni tribes and militias that have been cooperating with the Americans could turn against the central government.
Now go back and read the In Fallujah, Peace Through Brute Strength . No doubt the Sunnis are sitting back and watching as the Badr and ISF battle the Mahdi Army. And remember the quote, Asked whether democracy could ever bloom here, he replied: "No democracy in Iraq. Ever."
Now, read what the participants in the fighting are saying. The money quotes are :
In between battles, fighters spoke about politics and war. There was no sign of dread, or grief, or fear. Death was a matter of honor, a shortcut to some divine place.
and
”they are using the Americans against the Mahdi Army. People have reached a point that they will sell their refrigerator to buy a rocket launcher to shoot and kill the Americans."
and
"We are proud that he died," said Abu Moussa al-Sadr, 31, another militiaman. "Whenever one of us dies, it raises our morale. It intensifies our fighting."
"If we defeat them, we win," Kabi said. "And if we die, we win."
This is a civil war and the US military has sided with the Mahdi’s Shiite rivals -- the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq and the Dawa party.
In any other conflict, the US policy would be to encourage the “state government” to stop the military action and talk with the “rebels” … but the US is already involved … so who is providing the moral voice ? "The Islamic Republic of Iran does not regard the recent clashes in Iraq as being in the interest of the people of that country and calls for a speedy end to the clashes," Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hossein said.
While America is involved in the Iraq Civil War, CIA Director Michael Hayden said this morning on Meet the Press : It's very clear to us that al-Qaida has been able for the past 18 months or so to establish a safe haven along the Afghan-Pakistan border area that they have not enjoyed before, and that they're bringing in operatives into the region for training,"
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