SMRs and AMRs

Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Giuliani Begins Retreat From New Hampshire

BY NICHOLAS WAPSHOTT
The NY Sun

Rudolph Giuliani's decision to largely abandon the early voting state of New Hampshire and concentrate his efforts on the Florida primary three weeks later reflects an uncomfortable truth for the former New York mayor: The more he campaigned in the Granite State and the more he spent on advertising there, the more his poll numbers dropped.

Mr. Giuliani appears to be making a virtue of necessity by sounding the retreat in New Hampshire, where he continues to be outgunned by the Republican front-runner there, Mitt Romney, and where he has been beaten into second place by the resurgent campaign of Senator McCain.

He must now be sure to win Florida on January 29 to capture its large cache of delegates, as part of a strategy that sees him withdrawing from the smaller early states in favor of states such as New York, California, and Florida, which send large numbers of delegates to the nominating convention.

However, the wisdom of that strategy was cast in doubt yesterday by the latest poll in Mr. Giuliani's home state of New York showing the mayor's lead over his nearest Republican rivals cut by 11 points.

Mr. Giuliani now leads 37% to Michael Huckabee's 12% in New York, with 11% for Mr. McCain, 7% for Fred Thompson, and 5% each for Mr. Romney and Rep. Ron Paul, according to a new Quinnipiac poll.

A similar poll on October 17 showed Mr. Giuliani enjoying a 37-point lead over his nearest rival, Mr. Thompson, a former Tennessee senator.

"Mayor Giuliani is on top of the Republican field, but losing some steam," the director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, Maurice Carroll, said in a statement.

Mr. Giuliani's slide in New York comes hot on the heels of a Rasmussen poll at the end of last week showing him in third place in Florida behind Messrs. Huckabee and Romney after easily leading the field since September.

Although the mayor was never likely to win New Hampshire, where Mr. Romney has invested a great deal of time and money, Mr. Giuliani had sought to prevent the former Massachusetts governor from gaining national momentum with an easy win there.

(Continued here.)

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