PAUL KRUGMAN: Very Scary Things
New York Times
via Pottersville
In September 1998, the collapse of Long Term Capital Management, a giant hedge fund, led to a meltdown in the financial markets similar, in some ways, to what’s happening now. During the crisis in ’98, I attended a closed-door briefing given by a senior Federal Reserve official, who laid out the grim state of the markets. “What can we do about it?” asked one participant. “Pray,” replied the Fed official.
Our prayers were answered. The Fed coordinated a rescue for L.T.C.M., while Robert Rubin, the Treasury secretary at the time, and Alan Greenspan, who was the Fed chairman, assured investors that everything would be all right. And the panic subsided.
Yesterday, President Bush, showing off his M.B.A. vocabulary, similarly tried to reassure the markets. But Mr. Bush is, let’s say, a bit lacking in credibility. On the other hand, it’s not clear that anyone could do the trick: right now we’re suffering from a serious shortage of saviors. And that’s too bad, because we might need one.
What’s been happening in financial markets over the past few days is something that truly scares monetary economists: liquidity has dried up. That is, markets in stuff that is normally traded all the time — in particular, financial instruments backed by home mortgages — have shut down because there are no buyers.
This could turn out to be nothing more than a brief scare. At worst, however, it could cause a chain reaction of debt defaults.
(Continued here.)
via Pottersville
In September 1998, the collapse of Long Term Capital Management, a giant hedge fund, led to a meltdown in the financial markets similar, in some ways, to what’s happening now. During the crisis in ’98, I attended a closed-door briefing given by a senior Federal Reserve official, who laid out the grim state of the markets. “What can we do about it?” asked one participant. “Pray,” replied the Fed official.
Our prayers were answered. The Fed coordinated a rescue for L.T.C.M., while Robert Rubin, the Treasury secretary at the time, and Alan Greenspan, who was the Fed chairman, assured investors that everything would be all right. And the panic subsided.
Yesterday, President Bush, showing off his M.B.A. vocabulary, similarly tried to reassure the markets. But Mr. Bush is, let’s say, a bit lacking in credibility. On the other hand, it’s not clear that anyone could do the trick: right now we’re suffering from a serious shortage of saviors. And that’s too bad, because we might need one.
What’s been happening in financial markets over the past few days is something that truly scares monetary economists: liquidity has dried up. That is, markets in stuff that is normally traded all the time — in particular, financial instruments backed by home mortgages — have shut down because there are no buyers.
This could turn out to be nothing more than a brief scare. At worst, however, it could cause a chain reaction of debt defaults.
(Continued here.)
1 Comments:
Krugman states that an interest rate cut is a 100 % certainty.
That should be no surprise as we are about to go into an election year, and the Republicans will be bashing the Fed to reduce interest rates and the Dems will be echoing that sentiment. Yet, much like the Strategic Oil Reserve, I hope politics does not dictate bad policy decisions.
Questionable loans were made … and the loan makers need to be held accountable. If you are a stakeholder in Bear Stearns (BSC) you have seen the stock price run up to $172 and now down to $113 … so some investors are paying the price. That’s the risk you take in the market. But BSC is just one stock and they do not operate exclusively in the mortgage industry, so they should recover.
The question is should efforts be made to release cash to keep banks (and hedgefunds) afloat … or provide support for low income/middle class home buyers ? Sadly, the powerbrokers in Washington seem to have the “in” with Congress … hence we get John Thune creating loan programs that fit DM&E like a glove.
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