Iraq likely to miss goals set by U.S.
Military officers doubt top objectives -- sharing of oil revenue, provincial elections and integration of Sunni Arabs -- will be achieved before a September report to Congress.
By Julian E. Barnes
LA Times
WASHINGTON — U.S. military leaders in Iraq are increasingly convinced that most of the broad political goals President Bush laid out early this year in his announcement of a troop buildup will not be met this summer and are seeking ways to redefine success.
In September, Army Gen. David H. Petraeus, the top American commander in Iraq, is scheduled to present Congress with an assessment of progress in Iraq. Military officers in Baghdad and outside advisors working with Petraeus doubt that the three major goals set by U.S. officials for the government of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Maliki will be achieved by then.
Enactment of a new law to share Iraq's oil revenue among Sunni, Shiite and Kurdish regions is the only goal they think might be achieved in time, and even that is considered a long shot. The two other key benchmarks are provincial elections and a deal to allow more Sunni Arabs into government jobs.
With overhauls by the central government stalled and with security in Baghdad still a distant goal, Petraeus' advisors hope to focus on smaller achievements that they see as signs of progress, including local deals among Iraq's rival factions to establish areas of peace in some provincial cities.
(Continued here.)
By Julian E. Barnes
LA Times
WASHINGTON — U.S. military leaders in Iraq are increasingly convinced that most of the broad political goals President Bush laid out early this year in his announcement of a troop buildup will not be met this summer and are seeking ways to redefine success.
In September, Army Gen. David H. Petraeus, the top American commander in Iraq, is scheduled to present Congress with an assessment of progress in Iraq. Military officers in Baghdad and outside advisors working with Petraeus doubt that the three major goals set by U.S. officials for the government of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Maliki will be achieved by then.
Enactment of a new law to share Iraq's oil revenue among Sunni, Shiite and Kurdish regions is the only goal they think might be achieved in time, and even that is considered a long shot. The two other key benchmarks are provincial elections and a deal to allow more Sunni Arabs into government jobs.
With overhauls by the central government stalled and with security in Baghdad still a distant goal, Petraeus' advisors hope to focus on smaller achievements that they see as signs of progress, including local deals among Iraq's rival factions to establish areas of peace in some provincial cities.
(Continued here.)
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1 Comments:
Deep in this article is the real story.
“But Gates said last week that U.S. officials may have over-emphasized the importance of Iraq's central government.
"One of the concerns that I've had," Gates said, "was whether we had focused too much on central government construction in both Iraq and Afghanistan and not enough on the cultural and historical, provincial, tribal and other entities that have played an important role in the history of both countries."
The new command has realized that there will be no quick national-level deal on the key issues, said the senior military officer in Baghdad.
"You are talking about Sunnis who had power and Shiites who have power forgetting about what happened over the last 30 years," the officer said. "How easy is that going to be?"
In Iraq, local leaders have doubts about the central government's abilities to make a meaningful deal.
Gates is not Rumsfeld.
And this comment sounds oddly familiar to John McCain’s suggestions in November 2005.
“Military officers in Iraq said the efforts included recruiting Sunni Arab nationalists into security forces, forging agreements among neighborhoods of rival sects, establishing new businesses in once-violent areas and shifting local attitudes.
As I stated in a VoxVerax comment on "It's the oil fields, stupid!" , the proposed “benchmarks” may actually bring down the Iraqi government.
So, now the “we already told you” spin is in full gear. First last week, Bush warns of a “bloody August” … how can he go wrong … if it happens – that’s old news as “we already told you” that would happen …. And if things go right and they don’t happen … “see the surge is working.” Now, we have the military moving the goalposts and will proclaim in September that “we already told you” in May that we were changing our focus.
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