Losing the war in Afghanistan
By Robert I. Rotberg
Boston Globe
THE UNITED States and NATO are about to lose the war in Afghanistan to an insurgent, revived Taliban. Deprived of sufficient firepower and soldiers, Allied forces are failing to hunt down and contain the Taliban, especially in the southern part of the country. Moreover, the crucial battle for Pashtun hearts and minds is also about to be lost. Only the rapid provision of security, roads, electricity, and educational and health services can counter the appeal of the renewed and reinvigorated Taliban. Urgently required are more troops for security and more funds for rebuilding essential services.
Narco-trafficking is fueling the Taliban, and fat profits from poppies and opium are partially responsible for the militants' resurgence . Indeed, Afghanistan is supplying about 90 percent of the world's opium and nearly all of the heroin that ends up in Europe. A recent study by the UN Office for Drugs and Crime forecasts a record crop of poppies this year, on top of last year's bumper harvest.
To undercut the ability of the Taliban to purchase arms, pay soldiers, and buy the support of villagers, the United States and NATO need to break the back of the drug trade in and out of Afghanistan. However, reliance on eradication -- the current weapon of choice -- is foolish and wasteful. Uprooting crops and spraying have both had limited local effect. What is needed is a radically new, incentive-based method to provide better incomes to farmers from substitute crops.
Many Afghan officials have urged farmers to grow saffron or almonds instead of poppies. But the only viable substitute crop is wheat, an Afghan staple. Sometimes it is in short supply, too. If the West would guarantee above-market prices for wheat over 10 years, and establish a transparent method to buy unlimited quantities of wheat from Afghan farmers through an official marketing system, it is likely that Afghan farmers would gradually switch from poppies to wheat. And they could eat any wheat that becomes surplus. Furthermore, guaranteeing a high price for wheat would probably cost less than the billions devoted to eradication. It would also put more money than from poppies directly into the pockets of farmers and, simultaneously, cut out middlemen and traffickers.
(Continued here.)
Boston Globe
THE UNITED States and NATO are about to lose the war in Afghanistan to an insurgent, revived Taliban. Deprived of sufficient firepower and soldiers, Allied forces are failing to hunt down and contain the Taliban, especially in the southern part of the country. Moreover, the crucial battle for Pashtun hearts and minds is also about to be lost. Only the rapid provision of security, roads, electricity, and educational and health services can counter the appeal of the renewed and reinvigorated Taliban. Urgently required are more troops for security and more funds for rebuilding essential services.
Narco-trafficking is fueling the Taliban, and fat profits from poppies and opium are partially responsible for the militants' resurgence . Indeed, Afghanistan is supplying about 90 percent of the world's opium and nearly all of the heroin that ends up in Europe. A recent study by the UN Office for Drugs and Crime forecasts a record crop of poppies this year, on top of last year's bumper harvest.
To undercut the ability of the Taliban to purchase arms, pay soldiers, and buy the support of villagers, the United States and NATO need to break the back of the drug trade in and out of Afghanistan. However, reliance on eradication -- the current weapon of choice -- is foolish and wasteful. Uprooting crops and spraying have both had limited local effect. What is needed is a radically new, incentive-based method to provide better incomes to farmers from substitute crops.
Many Afghan officials have urged farmers to grow saffron or almonds instead of poppies. But the only viable substitute crop is wheat, an Afghan staple. Sometimes it is in short supply, too. If the West would guarantee above-market prices for wheat over 10 years, and establish a transparent method to buy unlimited quantities of wheat from Afghan farmers through an official marketing system, it is likely that Afghan farmers would gradually switch from poppies to wheat. And they could eat any wheat that becomes surplus. Furthermore, guaranteeing a high price for wheat would probably cost less than the billions devoted to eradication. It would also put more money than from poppies directly into the pockets of farmers and, simultaneously, cut out middlemen and traffickers.
(Continued here.)
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1 Comments:
Looks like there may be cross-pollination between Afghanistan and Iraq.
Iraq has exported suicide-bomber training to Afghanistan, and now “poppies” are growing in Iraq.
From the May 24 New Zealand Herald : BAGHDAD - Farmers in southern Iraq have started for the first time to grow opium poppies in their fields, sparking fears that Iraq might become a serious drugs producer along the lines of Afghanistan.
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