Bush `domino' theory on Iraq does not add up
RICHARD GWYN
Toronto Star
Comparisons between Iraq and Vietnam have become commonplace ever since the publication last week of the report of the Iraq Study Group with its judgment that the situation is "grave and deteriorating."
One important comparison has been overlooked, though: Just as president Lyndon Johnson used the excuse of the "domino theory" to justify keeping American troops in Vietnam, so President George W. Bush is now using the same tactic.
More and more these days, the White House is making the argument that if the U.S. pulls out of Iraq too quickly, the consequences to the region and to the war on terrorism will be disastrous.
This is uncannily similar to the arguments made some 30 years ago against a U.S. pullout from Vietnam. Then, the proposition went, a Communist victory in South Vietnam would be followed by a series of Communist takeovers in Southeast Asia, all the way down to Indonesia.
It's certainly not true that the fact that no dominoes fell after North Vietnam's victory means that it can be assumed automatically that nothing much will happen after a U.S. pullout from Iraq.
It's true, further, that there are valid reasons for concern about what may happen once the American leave.
An all-out civil war is just about inevitable — to the extent that it isn't already happening. This could spread across the region as neighbouring Sunni and Shiite countries, from Iran to Saudi Arabia and Egypt, get involved in order to help their religious kin. In parallel, the threat that an independent Kurdistan might then emerge could draw in Turkey.
It's inevitable, in addition, that an American withdrawal will constitute a huge victory for Al Qaeda and for the terrorists. They will have defeated the "Great Satan." Within the wreckage of a dismembered Iraq they will be able to function — training new terrorists, for instance — with near impunity.
(The rest is here.)
Toronto Star
Comparisons between Iraq and Vietnam have become commonplace ever since the publication last week of the report of the Iraq Study Group with its judgment that the situation is "grave and deteriorating."
One important comparison has been overlooked, though: Just as president Lyndon Johnson used the excuse of the "domino theory" to justify keeping American troops in Vietnam, so President George W. Bush is now using the same tactic.
More and more these days, the White House is making the argument that if the U.S. pulls out of Iraq too quickly, the consequences to the region and to the war on terrorism will be disastrous.
This is uncannily similar to the arguments made some 30 years ago against a U.S. pullout from Vietnam. Then, the proposition went, a Communist victory in South Vietnam would be followed by a series of Communist takeovers in Southeast Asia, all the way down to Indonesia.
It's certainly not true that the fact that no dominoes fell after North Vietnam's victory means that it can be assumed automatically that nothing much will happen after a U.S. pullout from Iraq.
It's true, further, that there are valid reasons for concern about what may happen once the American leave.
An all-out civil war is just about inevitable — to the extent that it isn't already happening. This could spread across the region as neighbouring Sunni and Shiite countries, from Iran to Saudi Arabia and Egypt, get involved in order to help their religious kin. In parallel, the threat that an independent Kurdistan might then emerge could draw in Turkey.
It's inevitable, in addition, that an American withdrawal will constitute a huge victory for Al Qaeda and for the terrorists. They will have defeated the "Great Satan." Within the wreckage of a dismembered Iraq they will be able to function — training new terrorists, for instance — with near impunity.
(The rest is here.)
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