Minnesota 1st Congressional District "a toss-up"

The congressional race in Minnesota's 1st District has now been officially classified as a "toss-up" by several professional election watchers. As political writer Mark Fischenich points out in the Mankato Free Press, the Rothenberg Report, the Cook Political Report and the National Journal have all upgraded the competitiveness of the contest. Here's the skinny:

Rothenberg Political Report projection as of Nov. 2: Democratic gain of 34-40 seats. Included in the PURE TOSS-UP list of 20 seats, all currently held by Republicans, are the Minnesota 1st (Gutknecht-Walz) and Minnesota 6th (Wetterling-Bachmann).

Cook Political Report. As of Oct 30, Charlie Cook writes: "Barring a dramatic event, we are looking at the prospect of GOP losses in the House of at least 20 to 35 seats, possibly more, and at least four in the Senate, with five or six most likely." Rating as of Nov. 2: REPUBLICAN TOSS UP: Minnesota 1st (Gutknecht-Walz) and Minnesota 6th (Wetterling-Bachmann).

Cook also writes:

If independents vote in fairly low numbers, as is customary in midterm elections, losses in the House will be on the lower end of that range. But if they turn out at a higher than normal level, their strong preference for Democrats in most races would likely push the GOP House losses to or above the upper levels.

Almost a third of the registered voters in the 1st Congressional District consider themselves independents.