Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball 2006: THE PREDICTIONS
Campaigns Clamor for Last-Minute Midterm "Mo"
Larry J. Sabato and David Wasserman
U.Va. Center for Politics
Just how Democratic a year is 2006?
Five days out, let's rephrase the question this way: when's the last time a major political party has failed to capture a single House seat, Senate seat, or governorship of the opposing party in a federal election year?
We bet it's never happened before, and it certainly hasn't happened in the post-World War II era. After all, even when a party suffers miserable net losses, it usually picks up at least several consolation prizes in the form of open seat pickups or an against-the-tide incumbent defeat.
Yet look at our 2006 predictions: at this moment, the Crystal Ball cannot identify a single election for Senate, House or Governor in which a Republican is likely to succeed a Democrat in office. Just imagine how devastating an absolute shutout would be in the eyes of history if this proves to be true!
Sure, we could easily be fooled by more than a few outcomes in this regard on Election Night, and we would probably place the odds of this historical unlikelihood's occurrence at no better than 50/50. But the very notion such a scenario is within the realm of possibilities is a testament to the lopsidedness of this year's theaters of battle.
If little changes between now and Tuesday, there remains little question that the GOP is headed towards devastating losses. And though candidates continue to stress various issues, only one has truly come to define our politics this year: war. Future historians may well look back on this wave election as "The Iraq Midterm," much we look back on the 1966 and 1974 elections as "The Vietnam Midterm" and "The Watergate Midterm" respectively.
Just as in 1975, it is likely that a substantially Democratic freshman class will be sworn into Congress in 2007 (though 2007's won't be nearly as big). Some entering members may prove "one term wonders" and others may show staying power. Most we will have seen coming. But if history is any guide, a handful will have scored fluke victories with under-the-radar, last-minute momentum. Wave elections are volatile, and in our years of publishing, we have never gazed into a stormier Crystal Ball.
Here's our best reading from the perspective of today, and as always, we're sticking our neck out on every race--no fence-straddling allowed--even if "he who lives by the Crystal Ball ends up eating ground glass!"
THE SENATE: Democrats + 6 = 51D, 49R
(The rest is here.)
Larry J. Sabato and David Wasserman
U.Va. Center for Politics
Just how Democratic a year is 2006?
Five days out, let's rephrase the question this way: when's the last time a major political party has failed to capture a single House seat, Senate seat, or governorship of the opposing party in a federal election year?
We bet it's never happened before, and it certainly hasn't happened in the post-World War II era. After all, even when a party suffers miserable net losses, it usually picks up at least several consolation prizes in the form of open seat pickups or an against-the-tide incumbent defeat.
Yet look at our 2006 predictions: at this moment, the Crystal Ball cannot identify a single election for Senate, House or Governor in which a Republican is likely to succeed a Democrat in office. Just imagine how devastating an absolute shutout would be in the eyes of history if this proves to be true!
Sure, we could easily be fooled by more than a few outcomes in this regard on Election Night, and we would probably place the odds of this historical unlikelihood's occurrence at no better than 50/50. But the very notion such a scenario is within the realm of possibilities is a testament to the lopsidedness of this year's theaters of battle.
If little changes between now and Tuesday, there remains little question that the GOP is headed towards devastating losses. And though candidates continue to stress various issues, only one has truly come to define our politics this year: war. Future historians may well look back on this wave election as "The Iraq Midterm," much we look back on the 1966 and 1974 elections as "The Vietnam Midterm" and "The Watergate Midterm" respectively.
Just as in 1975, it is likely that a substantially Democratic freshman class will be sworn into Congress in 2007 (though 2007's won't be nearly as big). Some entering members may prove "one term wonders" and others may show staying power. Most we will have seen coming. But if history is any guide, a handful will have scored fluke victories with under-the-radar, last-minute momentum. Wave elections are volatile, and in our years of publishing, we have never gazed into a stormier Crystal Ball.
Here's our best reading from the perspective of today, and as always, we're sticking our neck out on every race--no fence-straddling allowed--even if "he who lives by the Crystal Ball ends up eating ground glass!"
THE SENATE: Democrats + 6 = 51D, 49R
(The rest is here.)
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