Democrats Lead Republicans in House Vote by Seven Points
Narrowed lead still appears large enough to give Democrats majority control of House
by Frank Newport, Jeffrey M. Jones, Lydia Saad, and Joseph Carroll
GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- The final USA Today/Gallup measure of Americans' voting intentions for Congress shows Democrats with a 51% to 44% lead over Republicans among likely voters. Although this margin has narrowed from previous USA Today/Gallup polls, it still suggests that Democrats have enough strength to gain a majority of House seats. Statistical models developed from previous midterm elections suggest that if the pattern of elections over the last decades continues this year, a national vote margin of seven points translates into the Democrats winning enough seats to give them a clear majority.
The USA Today/Gallup estimate of voting preferences of likely voters nationwide is 51% voting for the Democratic candidate and 44% for the Republican candidate. This is slightly narrowed from the 54% to 41% lead enjoyed by the Democrats in the Oct. 20-22 poll, and considerably narrower than the large 59% to 36% Democratic lead in early October.
The same trend is evident among registered voters. Democrats now lead by a 51% to 40% margin among this group, slightly lower than the 53% to 38% margin seen in the Oct. 20-22 poll.
From a longer-range perspective, the current registered-voter estimates are similar to those found throughout 2006. Democrats have averaged 52% across 19 polls conducted prior to this final poll in 2006 while Republicans have averaged 41% ("likely voter" estimates have been calculated only in USA Today/Gallup polls conducted since mid-September).
A Democratic Majority?
Historical election patterns have shown that the national vote for Congress aggregated across all 435 districts corresponds closely to the number of seats each party winds up with after the election.
Gallup has modeled the number of seats a party will control based on that party's share of the national two-party vote for the House of Representatives using historical voting data in midterm elections from 1946 to 2002. The model takes into account structural factors such as the party of the president and the majority party in Congress entering the elections. The results suggest that a party needs at least a two percentage-point advantage in the national House vote to win a majority of the 435 seats. Based on this historical analysis, the Democrats' seven-point margin suggests they will win a large enough share of the national vote to have a majority of the seats in the next Congress.
(The rest is here.)
by Frank Newport, Jeffrey M. Jones, Lydia Saad, and Joseph Carroll
GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- The final USA Today/Gallup measure of Americans' voting intentions for Congress shows Democrats with a 51% to 44% lead over Republicans among likely voters. Although this margin has narrowed from previous USA Today/Gallup polls, it still suggests that Democrats have enough strength to gain a majority of House seats. Statistical models developed from previous midterm elections suggest that if the pattern of elections over the last decades continues this year, a national vote margin of seven points translates into the Democrats winning enough seats to give them a clear majority.
The USA Today/Gallup estimate of voting preferences of likely voters nationwide is 51% voting for the Democratic candidate and 44% for the Republican candidate. This is slightly narrowed from the 54% to 41% lead enjoyed by the Democrats in the Oct. 20-22 poll, and considerably narrower than the large 59% to 36% Democratic lead in early October.
The same trend is evident among registered voters. Democrats now lead by a 51% to 40% margin among this group, slightly lower than the 53% to 38% margin seen in the Oct. 20-22 poll.
From a longer-range perspective, the current registered-voter estimates are similar to those found throughout 2006. Democrats have averaged 52% across 19 polls conducted prior to this final poll in 2006 while Republicans have averaged 41% ("likely voter" estimates have been calculated only in USA Today/Gallup polls conducted since mid-September).
A Democratic Majority?
Historical election patterns have shown that the national vote for Congress aggregated across all 435 districts corresponds closely to the number of seats each party winds up with after the election.
Gallup has modeled the number of seats a party will control based on that party's share of the national two-party vote for the House of Representatives using historical voting data in midterm elections from 1946 to 2002. The model takes into account structural factors such as the party of the president and the majority party in Congress entering the elections. The results suggest that a party needs at least a two percentage-point advantage in the national House vote to win a majority of the 435 seats. Based on this historical analysis, the Democrats' seven-point margin suggests they will win a large enough share of the national vote to have a majority of the seats in the next Congress.
(The rest is here.)
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