Catching up on the news from southern Minnesota

by Leigh Pomeroy

I have been far too quiet on these pages. Between teaching 215 students about film, refereeing far more soccer games than my left knee wants to allow, trying to rewrite a screenplay before a writing partner pitches it in Hollywood, celebrating a birthday and more — well, there just isn't enough time.

Real good "breaking" news isn't easy to come by in this part of the world, but there is lots going on.

No doubt the biggest story is the 1st Congressional District race between incumbent Republican Gil Gutknecht and his challenger, teacher Tim Walz. The political analysts in Washington are saying the race is Gutknecht's to lose, but credit Walz with putting on a strong showing and with possibly an outside chance to win. Gutknecht's advantage is primarily due to what might be called "the fundamentals":

• Recent electoral history tells us over 95% of congressional incumbents are returned to office.
• In the last two elections, Gutknecht prevailed over his DFL opponent by 25 percentage points. (Note: I was the candidate in 2004.)
• Gutknecht has significantly more money to work with than Walz. At last count Gutknecht has raised $915,621 in the 2005-06 election cycle and with $840,016 in the bank, while Walz has garnered $545,653 with only $243,955 cash on hand.
• Southern Minnesota is not suffering any particular economic trauma. Unemployment rate is low, only 2% according to MPR. Corn prices are up due to the demand for ethanol. Housing prices are steady and interest rates are still reasonable.
• Though the district is fairly evenly split among Republicans, Democrats and independents, it has historically been conservative, whether represented by a Republican or a Democrat, the last one being Tim Penny (1983-95).

However, analysts geographically closer to the race argue that the 1st is a different breed of cat, and that indeed 2006 may be the year for a turnover. Here are the reasons:

• The DFL candidate, Tim Walz, is the most appealing since Tim Penny. He's young (42), a veteran (24 years in the Minnesota National Guard with a tour in Italy supporting Operation Enduring Freedom), a teacher (Minnesotans revere education), a good speaker and a tireless campaigner.
• Like the rest of the country, the Iraq war weighs heavily on the minds of southern Minnesota voters. Save for an announcement that Gutknecht made upon returning from a brief stint in Iraq that the occupation was not going as planned, the congressman has been a solid supporter of the President's foreign policy. Walz, on the other hand, leaning on his veteran status, has questioned the Iraq commitment.
• While the economy looks good on paper, most southern Minnesotans are not getting ahead. MPR lists a poverty level of 8% and a per capita income of only $19,889 in the 1st Congressional District, third lowest of all Minnesota's congressional districts. Further, the seats of the two districts with a lower per capita income, the 7th and the 8th, are held by Democrats slated to win easy reelection.
• Of the three predominantly rural congressional seats, the 1st is the only one held by a Republican. Again, the 7th and 8th are the other two.
• In terms of statistical measures, including per capita income, housing costs, and the percentage of the population without a high school diploma, the 1st shows demographics more aligned with Minnesota's Democratic districts than its Republican ones.
• In the 2004 elections, DFLers in the district took three State House seats from incumbent Republicans.
  
• Southern Minnesotans are split-ticket voters. While a solid core of perhaps 20-25% of each party will vote a straight ticket, the remaining voters, anywhere from 50% to 60% will think nothing of voting across party lines.

There is a greater excitement among Democrats for candidate Walz than in perhaps all the previous elections since 1994. That same excitement is not found among traditional Republicans for Gutknecht for several reasons:

• Gutknecht broke his "Contract with America" pledge not to run for more than six terms, a pledge that was a key campaign promise in his initial 1994 campaign.
• His support for the Iraq war, which even Republicans are tired of.
• His cautious support for the DM&E Railroad expansion project, which is strongly opposed by his historical base in Rochester, including the region's largest employer, the Mayo Clinic.
• The ballooning federal deficit.
• An overall general discontent with Congress.

In short, the word-of-mouth is good on Walz but almost nonexistent for Gutknecht. How all this translates, of course, won't finally play out till November 7th — or later, if the election is close.

Those interested in the race can follow it in the national media, but sources closer to the district offer incisive and often more complete insight. These include the blogs A Bluestem Prairie, Minnesota Monitor, MNPublius, Minnesota Campaign Report and Minnesota Central, among others.

The principal newspapers of the district include the Rochester Post-Bulletin, Mankato Free Press, the Winona Daily News, the Austin Daily Herald, the Albert Lea Tribune and the Worthington Daily Globe. (Unfortunately, the Post-Bulletin's website is essentially closed to all but its subscribers.) The two college newspapers of southern Minnesota's largest public universities, Minnesota State University Mankato and Winona State University, provide election coverage from the student point of view.

As for broadcast, the key television stations are KAAL (Austin/Rochester), KTTC (Rochester), KXLT (Rochester), KEYC (Mankato), KIMT (Mason City, Iowa), plus the principal Twin Cities stations, which are available throughout the district by cable, and the Sioux Falls, SD, stations, from which viewers in the southwest portion of Minnesota get most of their news.

Finally, YouTube is becoming a huge source for political information, including of political ads, debates and campaign videos. Search for videos with Gutknecht here and Walz here.