Terrorism Experts Cast Doubt on Qaeda Tie to London Arrests
By SCOTT SHANE
New York Times
WASHINGTON, Aug. 12 — When American and Pakistani officials said this week that one conspirator in the foiled plan to bomb trans-Atlantic airliners was a “liaison” to Al Qaeda, they suggested that his arrest proved the group was linked to the scheme. Rashid Rauf, a Briton, had trained in the group’s camps in the 1990’s and was “a key Al Qaeda operative,” one Pakistani official said.
But counterterrorism experts said Saturday that the focus of government officials and the public on Al Qaeda, a term today with deep connotations but elusive meaning, may be misplaced.
They say the Qaeda label remains useful shorthand for the news media and for officials who want to tap the powerful emotions associated with the Sept. 11 attacks. But to suggest that the terrorist threat today is represented by the organization directly commanded by Osama bin Laden is to oversimplify a complex international movement, the specialists say.
“If you think of Al Qaeda as the group that did 9/11, I don’t think it’s a very useful question,” said Marc S. Sageman, a former Central Intelligence Agency officer and author of a 2004 book closely studied in intelligence agencies, “Understanding Terror Networks.”
“There is no such thing as Al Qaeda as it existed before we went to Afghanistan and destroyed it,” Mr. Sageman said.
As the latest plot suggests, he said, that does not mean total victory is at hand. “We won the war against the old Al Qaeda. But we’re not winning against the global social movement that Al Qaeda was part of, because more and more kids are joining the movement,” he said.
Michael Scheuer, a former head of the C.I.A. unit that focuses on Mr. bin Laden, says there may be more left of the old Al Qaeda than Mr. Sageman thinks. But he, too, doubts that Mr. bin Laden had anything to do with the airliner plot and emphasizes Al Qaeda’s role as the inspiration and support for a broader movement.
“There are an amazing number of people who are connected to Al Qaeda” through training or funding, Mr. Scheuer said. “But the connection is not command and control.”
Some government officials acknowledge privately that Washington has been slow to consider the possibility that the international jihad movement is without any central organization.
(The rest is here.)
New York Times
WASHINGTON, Aug. 12 — When American and Pakistani officials said this week that one conspirator in the foiled plan to bomb trans-Atlantic airliners was a “liaison” to Al Qaeda, they suggested that his arrest proved the group was linked to the scheme. Rashid Rauf, a Briton, had trained in the group’s camps in the 1990’s and was “a key Al Qaeda operative,” one Pakistani official said.
But counterterrorism experts said Saturday that the focus of government officials and the public on Al Qaeda, a term today with deep connotations but elusive meaning, may be misplaced.
They say the Qaeda label remains useful shorthand for the news media and for officials who want to tap the powerful emotions associated with the Sept. 11 attacks. But to suggest that the terrorist threat today is represented by the organization directly commanded by Osama bin Laden is to oversimplify a complex international movement, the specialists say.
“If you think of Al Qaeda as the group that did 9/11, I don’t think it’s a very useful question,” said Marc S. Sageman, a former Central Intelligence Agency officer and author of a 2004 book closely studied in intelligence agencies, “Understanding Terror Networks.”
“There is no such thing as Al Qaeda as it existed before we went to Afghanistan and destroyed it,” Mr. Sageman said.
As the latest plot suggests, he said, that does not mean total victory is at hand. “We won the war against the old Al Qaeda. But we’re not winning against the global social movement that Al Qaeda was part of, because more and more kids are joining the movement,” he said.
Michael Scheuer, a former head of the C.I.A. unit that focuses on Mr. bin Laden, says there may be more left of the old Al Qaeda than Mr. Sageman thinks. But he, too, doubts that Mr. bin Laden had anything to do with the airliner plot and emphasizes Al Qaeda’s role as the inspiration and support for a broader movement.
“There are an amazing number of people who are connected to Al Qaeda” through training or funding, Mr. Scheuer said. “But the connection is not command and control.”
Some government officials acknowledge privately that Washington has been slow to consider the possibility that the international jihad movement is without any central organization.
(The rest is here.)
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