Smooth sailing today, rough seas tomorrow?

LEIGH POMEROY

The other day I was talking to my pharmacist, a former Republican now independent who agrees with Democratic ideals, if not national Democratic politicians. He was complaining about George Bush, as many people in our Midwest micropolitan community often do. "And yet," he said, "look around," gesturing toward the large plate-glass windows in the front of the pharmacy where he spends far too many hours.

I looked outside at our modest downtown area: Cars coming and going. It looked like business as usual to me. "What?" I asked.

"The economy here," he said. "It's doing just fine."

And indeed it is. Most of us who live here have no complaints. Unemployment is low, the economy is stable, and even though a hot housing market has cooled off a bit, commercial construction is on the rise again.

No one is getting rich, except for the new doctors moving into town, most from foreign countries, as the Mayo Clinic expands. And a few developers. And, of course, our local billionaire, Glen Taylor, who owns the Taylor Companies — one of the largest privately held printers in the world — and the struggling Minnesota Timberwolves NBA franchise.

But winters are not as nasty as they used to be, probably due to global warming, and the farming economy is strong, thanks to generous government subsidies and a growing demand for corn-based ethanol. And despite rising tuition costs, our four local institutions of higher education — two public, two private — are full up, providing jobs for otherwise unemployable academic types as well as their support staffs, as well as low-wage part-time workers for Mr. Taylor's aforementioned printing companies and our strong retail economy.

It's a system that works, especially for my pharmacist friend. His business is booming, thanks to an aging population, Medicare Part D, and drug company advertising. A shortage of qualified people in his profession means that he's overworked at his own store, but he still moonlights for other pharmacies on weekends. He doesn't have to worry about paying bills; his biggest concern is getting time off. And yet, according to the Midwestern ethic, time off is always secondary to work, except for the obligatory trip north in the summer for a week at the lake.

Yet underneath our community's comfortable façade we both know things aren't right. Government cuts from the federal level on down are putting pressure on our local organizations that provide necessary services for those who are not as lucky as the pharmacist and me. Demand at our local food shelf is up. The Salvation Army is enjoying a banner year.

Students wonder if there are going to be decent jobs for them once they launch from our local colleges. Most realize they aren't going to be able to stay around here because there simply aren't many positions that pay well. And once they're ejected from their parents' health insurance policies, then what? Even if they were willing to turn their part-time jobs into full-time employment, few offer benefits.

So off to the Twin Cities they will go looking for a future. Or if they're teachers off to some rural community or inner-city school district where they will do a heckuva job for a modest salary. Or if they're in the National Guard or Reserves off to the front in Iraq (or elsewhere) where who-knows-what will happen.

President Bush and his Republican fellow travelers say the economy is strong because of their budget cuts. They may be partially right, and there is certainly no argument that the budget cuts have improved the lives of those at the top tiers of our society. But the rest of us who are doing well enough, like my pharmacist friend and me, have reason to question our current economic well-being.

Is the economy doing well because of tax cuts or because of massive borrowing? Is the unemployment rate low because Americans are really working? Or is it because so many are working part-time, are employed beneath their education or qualification level, or have dropped out of the statistical pool altogether? Or is the economy being fueled by record spending on "defense" related programs, such as "Star Wars" and the war in Iraq? (See "Related statistics" below.)

If all of these are true, then is our current economy really sustainable, especially in light of increasing costs due to our no-longer-limitless fossil fuel energy supply? If they are true, can this economy continue given the environmental pressures from the planet's growing population, the increasing standard-of-living in Third World countries, and the inertial effects of global warming?

My pharmacist knows. He has a jolly laugh, a broad smile. His life is good. But he knows: Change must come. And it's not going the come under the current regime. It's taken a long time for Americans to realize this, but polls seem to indicate that they finally have.

Like my pharmacist, will Americans vote to change direction in the upcoming elections? And if so, if a new batch of politicians come to Washington and the state capitals, how long will it take the ship of state to turn away from its shortsighted economic and social policies?

Or have we sailed so close to the precipice — as some environmental theorists, political analysts and economists have argued — that major worldwide change is inevitable regardless of our feeble corrections, and that the U.S., perhaps with the rest of the planet, is destined for not-so-glorious times ahead?

I certainly don't know, and neither does my pharmacist friend. But one thing we can agree on: Relatively smooth sailing today does not mean calm seas tomorrow. For our kids' sake and their kids' sake, we must do everything we can to ensure a better country — and planet — for them tomorrow.

---

Related statistics (courtesy of Mother Jones magazine):

• Private-sector jobs created by defense spending, 2001-2006: 1.5 million (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
• Private-sector jobs created by other government spending, 2001-2006: 1.3 million (Department of Defense)
• Private-sector jobs lost, 2001-2006: 1 million (Economic Policy Institute)

More related statistics (courtesy of Mother Jones magazine):

• The median household income has stagnated at around $44,000.
• Among the Forbes 400 who gave to a 2004 presidential campaign, 72% gave to President Bush.
• In 2005, there were 9 million American millionaires, a 62% increase since 2002.
• In 2005, 25.7 million Americans received food stamps, a 49% increase since 2000.
• The Republican tax cuts a two-child family earning $1 million an extra $86,722 — or Harvard tuition, room, board, and an iMac G5 for both kids.
• A two-child family earning $50,000 gets $2,050 — or one-fifth the cost of public college for one kid.
• Adjusted for inflation, the federal minimum wage has fallen 42% since its peak in 1968.
• If the $5.15 hourly minimum wage had risen at the same rate as CEO compensation since 1990, it would now stand at $23.03.
• A minimum wage employee who works 40 hours a week for 51 weeks a year goes home with $10,506 before taxes.
• The $17,530 earned by the average Wal-Mart employee last year was $1,820 below the poverty line for a family of four.
• Five of America's ten richest people are Wal-Mart heirs. (See related article, "18 rich families pay for campaign to kill estate taxes".)
  
• Public companies spend 10% of their earnings compensating their top five executives.
• Poor Americans spend one-fourth of their income on residential energy costs. Exxon Mobil's 2005 profit of $36.13 billion is more than the gross domestic product of two-thirds of the world’s nations.
• CEO pay among military contractors has tripled since 2001.

Still more related statistics (courtesy of Parade magazine):

• The real median household income declined 3% from 2000 to 2004.
• The percentage of households earning $25,000 to $99,999 (roughly middle-income range) shrank 1.5% from 2000 to 2004.
• In 2005, real average weekly earnings fell 0.4%.
• The savings rate for Americans is the lowest it has been in 73 years.
• Credit-card debt is at an all-time high, averaging $9,312 per household.
• The average cost per year of a public college (in state) is $12,127, a 25% increase since 2001.

And even more related statistics (courtesy of the National Coalition on Health Care):

• Workers are paying $1,094 more in premiums annually for family coverage than they did in 2000.
• Since 2000, employment-based health insurance premiums have increased 73 percent, compared to cumulative inflation of 14 percent and cumulative wage growth of 15 percent during the same period.
• Premiums for employer-sponsored health insurance in the United States have been rising five times faster on average than workers' earnings since 2000 (Henry J. Kaiser Foundation).
• The average employee contribution to company-provided health insurance has increased more than 143 percent since 2000. Average out-of-pocket costs for deductibles, co-payments for medications, and co-insurance for physician and hospital visits rose 115 percent during the same period (Hewitt Associates LLC).
• 50 percent of all bankruptcy filings were partly the result of medical expenses. Every 30 seconds in the United States someone files for bankruptcy in the aftermath of a serious health problem (Himmelstein, D; E. Warren; D. Thorne; and S. Woolhander).