Republicans Sag in New Poll
Bush and Congress Get Perilously Low Marks As Gas Prices Rise
By JOHN HARWOOD, Wall Street Journal
April 27, 2006; Page A4
Rising gas prices have intensified discontent with Washington and handed Congress a frightening midterm election backdrop: a deeply pessimistic electorate, despite a robust economy.
A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll underscores a striking gap between Americans' mood and the nation's economic performance. Fully 77% call themselves uneasy about the state of the economy rather than confident, even as data showed new-home sales and factory orders remain strong. Economists expect a similar message tomorrow when the government reports on first-quarter growth.
Public unease partly reflects fallout from the prolonged and unpopular Iraq war. But it also shows the impact of pump prices topping $3 a gallon in many places, passing Iraq to become the nation's highest-priority issue. The upshot: Two-thirds of Americans say the nation is "off on the wrong track," President Bush's approval rating has fallen to 36% and Congress fares even worse at 22% approval.
"There's almost nothing that the public is satisfied with," says Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who conducts the Journal/NBC poll with Republican counterpart Bill McInturff. "What they're telling you is, they want change on every front."
That is a worrisome sign for Republicans, who are seeking to defend their House and Senate majorities with little more than six months remaining before Election Day. Continuing a trend that has persisted for a year, Democrats lead -- beyond the poll's 3.1 percentage point margin of error -- in public preference for which party should control Congress. The survey of 1,005 adults was conducted April 21-24.
And in the run-up to November, Democrats also enjoy an edge in intensity; by 11 percentage points, their partisans are more likely to express high interest in the midterm campaigns. The biggest bright spot for Republicans is that Democrats have made no progress improving their national image, an indication that they aren't yet positioned to take advantage of their opportunity for far-reaching November gains.
Public unhappiness with government is strongly at odds with bullishness on Wall Street, as new data underscored the economy's current strength. The Commerce Department yesterday reported sales of new single-family homes rose 13.8% in March, the largest increase in 13 years.
Orders for big-ticket manufactured goods rose 6.1% in March, the largest increase in nearly a year. Indeed, that data fueled bond-market worries the economy is so strong that the Fed will be reluctant to stop lifting short-term interest rates after May, when the central bank is expected to bump rates up a notch.
Public unhappiness also represents a powerful source of frustration for Republicans, who want Mr. Bush and Congress to get more credit for the economy. Doing just that is a top priority of new White House Chief of Staff Josh Bolten and congressional Republican leaders, who are aiming to take a first step by accelerating House-Senate negotiations on tax-cut legislation that would extend the current 15% rates on capital gains and dividends.
Yet worries about gasoline prices, offshoring of jobs, rising health-care costs and precarious private pension plans are creating anxiety even among workers who do have jobs. Moreover, the fruits of the economy's recent strength aren't evenly shared: Workers at the bottom and the middle are benefiting less than those at the top.
(The remainder is here.)
By JOHN HARWOOD, Wall Street Journal
April 27, 2006; Page A4
Rising gas prices have intensified discontent with Washington and handed Congress a frightening midterm election backdrop: a deeply pessimistic electorate, despite a robust economy.
A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll underscores a striking gap between Americans' mood and the nation's economic performance. Fully 77% call themselves uneasy about the state of the economy rather than confident, even as data showed new-home sales and factory orders remain strong. Economists expect a similar message tomorrow when the government reports on first-quarter growth.
Public unease partly reflects fallout from the prolonged and unpopular Iraq war. But it also shows the impact of pump prices topping $3 a gallon in many places, passing Iraq to become the nation's highest-priority issue. The upshot: Two-thirds of Americans say the nation is "off on the wrong track," President Bush's approval rating has fallen to 36% and Congress fares even worse at 22% approval.
"There's almost nothing that the public is satisfied with," says Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who conducts the Journal/NBC poll with Republican counterpart Bill McInturff. "What they're telling you is, they want change on every front."
That is a worrisome sign for Republicans, who are seeking to defend their House and Senate majorities with little more than six months remaining before Election Day. Continuing a trend that has persisted for a year, Democrats lead -- beyond the poll's 3.1 percentage point margin of error -- in public preference for which party should control Congress. The survey of 1,005 adults was conducted April 21-24.
And in the run-up to November, Democrats also enjoy an edge in intensity; by 11 percentage points, their partisans are more likely to express high interest in the midterm campaigns. The biggest bright spot for Republicans is that Democrats have made no progress improving their national image, an indication that they aren't yet positioned to take advantage of their opportunity for far-reaching November gains.
Public unhappiness with government is strongly at odds with bullishness on Wall Street, as new data underscored the economy's current strength. The Commerce Department yesterday reported sales of new single-family homes rose 13.8% in March, the largest increase in 13 years.
Orders for big-ticket manufactured goods rose 6.1% in March, the largest increase in nearly a year. Indeed, that data fueled bond-market worries the economy is so strong that the Fed will be reluctant to stop lifting short-term interest rates after May, when the central bank is expected to bump rates up a notch.
Public unhappiness also represents a powerful source of frustration for Republicans, who want Mr. Bush and Congress to get more credit for the economy. Doing just that is a top priority of new White House Chief of Staff Josh Bolten and congressional Republican leaders, who are aiming to take a first step by accelerating House-Senate negotiations on tax-cut legislation that would extend the current 15% rates on capital gains and dividends.
Yet worries about gasoline prices, offshoring of jobs, rising health-care costs and precarious private pension plans are creating anxiety even among workers who do have jobs. Moreover, the fruits of the economy's recent strength aren't evenly shared: Workers at the bottom and the middle are benefiting less than those at the top.
(The remainder is here.)
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